Behind the video
Why Earnings Tsunami DESTROYS AMZN, INTC, AMD And Other AI Stocks
Overall Thesis
The host regards the earnings-related AI selloff as an irrational panic approaching exhaustion rather than evidence of collapsing AI demand. He expects a recovery and year-end rally, favoring SpaceX tactically, Tesla through year-end, and Meta as a rebound opportunity.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceX Class AThe host calls SpaceX his strongest tactical opportunity, arguing that exceptional earnings are being obscured by temporary unlock-related selling. He also expects large multiyear returns from terrestrial compute expansion and eventual orbital AI.
Key Arguments
- He attributes the recent decline to unlocks exceeding half the previously available float.
- He expects trading turnover to absorb the selling pressure early next week.
- His next-year scenario assumes roughly $400–450 billion of revenue and substantial earnings.
- He regards the business outlook as more immediately visible than Tesla's.
- He recommends buying now and maintaining exposure alongside Tesla.
Risks acknowledged
- Unlock-related selling may persist and another unlock is approaching.
- The market could assign an unexpectedly low earnings multiple.
- A failed Starship test flight could cause severe downside.
- Orbital AI success is a condition for the largest multiyear return scenario.
- He explicitly acknowledges the possibility of being wrong.
TSLATeslaThe host expects Tesla to reach all-time highs by year-end and describes it as his most confident eight-week investment view. He attributes prospective upside to an anticipated merger premium and accelerating autonomy deployment.
Key Arguments
- He interprets committees on both sides of a prospective merger as evidence that a deal will happen.
- He expects a 30–40% merger premium to create a persistent stock-price tailwind.
- Cybercab registrations and deployments support his operational optimism.
- Tesla and SpaceX are his largest positions, and he recommends owning both.
Risks acknowledged
- Tesla has more execution uncertainty than SpaceX in his assessment.
- Political disruption and extreme leverage could create risks.
- He treats near-term share-price fluctuations as ordinary volatility.
AMZNAmazonThe host argues Amazon's small earnings misses and spending-related cash-flow weakness do not justify the selloff, especially given AWS growth. He presents Amazon as an unusually safe long-term return opportunity, while giving conflicting tentative views on the following session.
Key Arguments
- He emphasizes AWS growth and regards the overall earnings report as strong.
- He views capital spending as investment rather than evidence of deteriorating demand.
- He argues much of the negative reaction was already priced in before earnings.
- He expects AWS to offset possible agentic-shopping pressure on retail.
Risks acknowledged
- Amazon missed some reported expectations.
- The retail business could face agentic-shopping disruption.
- He has no position and seeks higher returns elsewhere.
- He briefly allows for a 5% down day before subsequently favoring recovery.
INTCIntelThe host attributes Intel's weak guidance primarily to a company-specific fab incident rather than falling AI demand. He expects a long-term investment to make money, but ranks Intel below his preferred opportunities.
Key Arguments
- Reported revenue, earnings, and data-center growth were strong in his account.
- He treats the fab disruption as a one-off event.
- He views spending-related cash burn as less important than prospective earnings.
Risks acknowledged
- Next-quarter guidance is materially below expectations.
- He criticizes management's fab-location judgment.
- Intel is a long-term play and is not near the top of his investment list.
Predictions (1)
GOOGLAlphabetThe host believes Alphabet's selloff is excessive and expects the stock to recover, but dislikes the investment relative to his preferred names. He acknowledges concerns about monetization of AI search.
Key Arguments
- He regards a roughly 12% decline as oversold.
- AI search monetization may improve as the product matures.
- He explicitly says Alphabet will go up again.
Risks acknowledged
- He acknowledges lower revenue per AI search.
- He does not recommend or own Alphabet.
- He believes other investments offer substantially better upside.
Predictions (1)
METAMeta PlatformsThe host views Meta's earnings selloff as excessive and believes the shares are forming a bottom. He expects a rapid recovery and has increased his exposure through short puts.
Key Arguments
- He considers the underlying earnings very good.
- He initiated exposure around $648 and increased it around $630.
- He interprets stabilization and recovery as evidence that selling is exhausted.
Risks acknowledged
- His position remains slightly negative.
- He acknowledges the possibility that his broader recovery thesis is wrong.
MSFTMicrosoftThe host considers Microsoft's negative stock reaction inconsistent with strong earnings and growth. He expects a strong positive session soon, although he does not hold the stock.
Key Arguments
- He says Microsoft substantially beat earnings expectations.
- He views market negativity as disconnected from fundamentals.
- He interprets potential job reductions as favorable for profitability.
Risks acknowledged
- Strong earnings have not prevented selling.
- He holds no Microsoft position.
Predictions (1)
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesThe host argues AMD's decline in sympathy with Intel is irrational because Intel's problem is company-specific. He treats the episode as evidence of indiscriminate selling rather than issuing a separate AMD return forecast.
Key Arguments
- AMD had not reported earnings.
- Intel's fab disruption does not establish weaker CPU demand.
- An Intel-specific supply disruption does not justify mechanically selling its competitor.
Risks acknowledged
- Sector sentiment can still pressure AMD despite the asserted lack of a fundamental connection.
NVDANVIDIAThe host regards NVIDIA as substantially undervalued and says it is bottoming. It is his third-largest position, but his discussion does not supply a distinct forward return or price-direction forecast.
Key Arguments
- He describes the valuation as ridiculous.
- He sees an ongoing bottoming process.
- He holds it as a major position behind Tesla and SpaceX.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock remains exposed to the broader AI selloff.
SNDKSandiskThe host calls Sandisk's decline irrational given strong business performance and memory demand. His commentary supports a favorable operational and valuation narrative without a separate stock-direction prediction.
Key Arguments
- He says the company is performing extremely well.
- He agrees that infrastructure customers underestimate NAND requirements.
- He treats the decline as another sign of indiscriminate selling.
Risks acknowledged
- Strong reported performance has not prevented a sharp share-price decline.
The host highlights the S&P 500's resilience despite severe weakness in selected AI stocks and expects the broader panic to exhaust itself. His general year-end rally and election commentary does not specify a separate S&P 500 investment call.
Key Arguments
- The index has declined far less than individual AI momentum stocks.
- He interprets failed selling attempts as exhaustion.
- He expects strong earnings and economic growth eventually to overcome negative sentiment.
Risks acknowledged
- The broader rally outlook assumes no severe geopolitical or political shock.
- A Democratic sweep could generate some market weakness.
- He acknowledges a rally may already be a consensus expectation.
ETHEthereumThe host notes Ethereum's decline is larger than Bitcoin's and potentially related to the Binance news. He offers no Ethereum price or investment-return forecast.
Key Arguments
- He describes an approximately 4% decline as more serious than Bitcoin's move.
- He suspects a connection to the possible Binance incident.
Risks acknowledged
- The causal connection and alleged hack are unconfirmed.
MUMicron TechnologyThe host sees Micron as a value opportunity supported by strong memory demand and earnings potential. He criticizes bearish arguments that simultaneously cite memory shortages for chipmakers and collapsing demand for memory suppliers.
Key Arguments
- He regards DRAM, NAND, and high-bandwidth memory demand as underestimated.
- He considers the earnings multiple disconnected from earnings growth.
- He holds a Micron position.
Risks acknowledged
- Memory investors remain concerned about cyclicality.
- The market can continue assigning low multiples despite strong earnings.
PLTRPalantir TechnologiesThe host warns Palantir could decline around its upcoming earnings if the prevailing negative sentiment persists. He immediately qualifies that view by noting sentiment could change.
Key Arguments
- Other AI companies have sold off despite strong earnings.
- He sees market sentiment as the key near-term driver.
Risks acknowledged
- Sentiment may shift before the earnings release.
Predictions (1)
BTCBitcoinThe host regards Bitcoin's roughly 2% decline as modest rather than a crash. He discusses an unconfirmed Binance hack as a possible explanation and considers shifting some older crypto exposure into AI stocks.
Key Arguments
- He characterizes prices around $78,000–79,000 as ordinary volatility.
- He suggests reported Binance wallet movements may be weighing on crypto.
Risks acknowledged
- The alleged hack is unconfirmed.
- He does not want to contribute to manufactured Bitcoin panic.
MSTRStrategyThe host considers Strategy's earnings uneventful and its reported move small for the stock. He agrees with a viewer's preference for SpaceX as a safer long-term investment with more upside, without predicting an absolute decline in Strategy.
Key Arguments
- He says the earnings contained nothing special.
- He treats the approximately 2.7% move as routine.
- He prefers SpaceX on relative safety and upside.
Risks acknowledged
- Relative preference for SpaceX does not establish negative absolute returns for Strategy.
Hedges & Caveats
- The rally outlook assumes no severe political disruption or war escalation.
- Democrats winning both congressional chambers could cause some market weakness.
- SpaceX unlocks create material selling pressure, and the timing of its exhaustion is uncertain.
- He avoids holding a major SpaceX position through Starship test flights because failure could produce disproportionate downside.
- He acknowledges he could be wrong and that the year-end rally may be an overly consensual trade.
- Amazon's next-day outlook varies during the broadcast, from possible further weakness to a green session.
- He holds no Amazon, Alphabet, or Microsoft position and prefers other opportunities.
- He discourages short-term options for viewers and generally favors expirations at least 18 months away.