How the view evolved
American Express is reported to be trading higher that day. The host does not provide a company-specific forecast or recommendation.
The host is actively building his American Express position and sees attractive returns over three to five years with relatively low risk. He describes $300 as deeply discounted while identifying $250–275 as a realistic downside range.
3 predictions from this thesis
“in this one at 300 it's a steel deal but worst case scenario in this one 250 to 275.”
“I would love to buy some more American Express shares. Um, that's one that doesn't have a significant amount of risk over the next three to five years in my opinion, but has actually a great upside reward for me over the next three to five years.”
“They're going to be stocks like American Express and RH and Netflix. Okay? And these are positions I'm building out actively right now.”
The host views American Express as a high-quality, comparatively low-risk business available at an attractive price. Its affluent clientele, recurring fees, improving financials, dividends, and shrinking share count support his multiyear appreciation thesis.
1 prediction from this thesis
The host reports buying slightly over $6,000 of American Express at just above $300 per share. He describes it as a great long-term company and expresses strong accumulation conviction.
The host bought another 30 American Express shares and expresses strong investment conviction at the current valuation. He favors its recurring membership revenue, customer loyalty, and transaction-driven earnings.
Jeremy is actively buying American Express, calling it one of the best business models with a strong client base, and expects a strong run from 2027 to 2030.
1 prediction from this thesis
Jeremy views American Express as undervalued after being down 16% this year, and expects it to rally sharply once oil and interest rates peak.
1 prediction from this thesis
The host considers American Express a top-tier company with an attractive valuation, strong financials, and a great management team, viewing it as a candidate for a very large long-term position.
He views American Express as a contrarian buy, noting the stock is down about 12% this year due to higher interest rates, but believes it should actually be up about 12% given its high-quality, wealth-focused business model.
The host prefers American Express to Walmart because of its business model and lower valuation. He includes it among his preferred current opportunities and expresses confidence in future investment gains.
1 prediction from this thesis
The speaker views American Express as a fairly valued, good compounding company likely to outperform the broader market over time.
The host views American Express as a consistently great company that is hard to find risk in, aside from the possibility of a severe recession affecting even its high-income customer base. It was an honorable mention for his hypothetical three-year single-stock investment.
Jeremy views American Express as one of the best stocks in the market thanks to its strong balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow, along with a premium customer base of high credit scores and incomes. He believes the business model is difficult to replicate.
American Express is a preferred alternative to initiating Hims because the host expects attractive investment returns over five years. He specifically endorses shares below $350.
American Express is presented as an attractive stock to buy and hold for dividends and capital appreciation. The host expects mid-20s annualized returns in his base case, around 30% in his bull case, and 10% to 16% even under his bear assumptions.
4 predictions from this thesis
“My bear case is depressing. 5% revenue growth on average over the coming years. 8% net income growth on average over the coming years. 20 to 25 PE. And I still get 10 to 16% compounding annual growth rate.”
“My base case, this is what I actually expect, right? 8% revenue growth, 12% net income growth, 28 to 33 PE I think is fair for a company like Amex growing at these sorts of growth rates. And we're talking about a mid-20s compound annual growth rate.”
“In this scenario, I'd get probably a 30%ish CAGR, compound annual growth rate here.”
“I think this represents the perfect easy single or double type stock, right? That you can just own, you can buy a big stake in, you can own it, make your dividends on the stock, make capital appreciation over time, and just be able to sleep well at night, right?”
The host expects strong American Express earnings to lift the stock back above $350. He also wants to continue accumulating shares and would prefer a price decline to improve his purchasing opportunity.
2 predictions from this thesis
The host expects American Express to beat revenue, earnings, and guidance expectations. His confidence rests on recurring membership fees and affluent customers, but he does not explicitly predict the stock's earnings reaction.
American Express receives an eight and is preferred to PayPal. The host views its paid membership model and consistent results as attractive at a fair valuation.
1 prediction from this thesis
The host values American Express at approximately $783–$923 in 2030 and considers $346 a strong buying price. He uses progressively higher and lower entry prices to establish valuation-based buy, avoid and sell rules.
6 predictions from this thesis
“I mean, if it was 246, then it's like load the flipping flapjack and boat on American Express.”
“And if it was $646 today, I would sell every American Express share I have because basically the upside's almost, you know, nothing over the coming years, right? Or if I didn't sell it all, I would sell the far majority of my shares essentially, right?”
“At if it was $546 today, it would not be a buy cuz then my compound annual growth rate I'd be getting is just very, very low over the next few years.”
“At 44, let's say the stock was $446 today, it would be an okay buy, right?”
“So at $346, American Express is a buy today, right?”
“So, the moral of the story is here I have the stock going to somewhere, you know, between about $783 and $923 come 2030, which gives me a compound annual growth rate deep into the 20s.”
American Express appears attractive under the host's valuation scenarios because of customer retention and predictable earnings growth. His base case implies 23–28% compound annual returns, while his bear case still implies approximately 9%.
3 predictions from this thesis
“So that makes American Express a pretty attractive stock right now.”
“Now, when I can still get a very nice return, which American Express, even in that bare scenario, still a 9% returner compound annual growth rate.”
“A base case for American Express, I had them 8% revenue growth on average, 12% net income growth on average, right? 28 to 33 PE under this scenario, right? And I get a compound annual growth rate of 23 to 28%.”
