Behind the video
Now What. The Morning After the Fed & Google Disasters.
Overall Thesis
Kevin remains bullish on QQQ, AI hardware, Tesla and Apple despite the technology selloff, arguing that capital raising creates temporary pressure while AI productivity gains remain ahead. He treats Alphabet's search disruption and ServiceNow's margin problems as company-specific, while identifying worker income weakness, elevated oil prices and inflation expectations as broader risks.
Narratives
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustKevin recommends buying QQQ or its components through year-end, viewing the technology selloff as temporary rather than the end of the AI investment opportunity. He expects AI productivity gains and eventual absorption of capital raising to support renewed market enthusiasm.
Key Arguments
- Declining credit default swap prices suggest that financing fears have already peaked.
- A dovish Fed and reduced expected rate hikes support his investment outlook.
- Alphabet and ServiceNow have specific business problems that do not establish a marketwide AI failure.
- He expects the larger AI productivity-driven rally to remain ahead.
Risks acknowledged
- Continued capital raising can suppress prices temporarily.
- An unresolved Iran conflict and expensive oil could delay gains.
- Weak worker income growth and rising inflation expectations threaten the outlook.
- Additional earnings releases can generate volatility.
Predictions (1)
AAPLAppleKevin explicitly calls Apple's product cycle bullish for Apple stock and discloses owning shares. His positive investment view rests on enthusiasm for the Duo device and an expected upgrade cycle across phones and laptops.
Key Arguments
- His personal product testing supports enthusiasm for the Duo's display, multitasking and portability.
- Expects the Duo to stimulate device upgrades.
- Believes more demanding AI workflows will encourage purchases of laptops with additional memory and storage.
- Views Apple as a beneficiary of rotation away from pressured AI hardware names.
Risks acknowledged
- Notes awkward pencil storage, charging constraints and uncertain battery endurance.
- Dislikes touchscreen laptops.
- Acknowledges that basic text-based AI tasks do not require powerful hardware.
Predictions (1)
GOOGLAlphabetKevin describes Alphabet's earnings problems as an isolated business disaster and says he does not want exposure. His concern is that AI agents undermine search monetization, but he does not make an explicit forward stock-price decline prediction.
Key Arguments
- Search and network advertising remain a large share of revenue.
- Believes AI search and agents threaten traditional advertising economics.
- Criticizes management for attempting to obscure search weakness.
- Treats Alphabet's problems as distinct from the broader AI hardware opportunity.
Risks acknowledged
- Says he wants the stock to recover despite not wanting exposure.
- Recognizes efforts to monetize AI agents and AI-driven search.
MSFTMicrosoftKevin views Microsoft's earnings and services growth favorably while acknowledging that its $25 billion financing adds to market liquidity pressure. Stable credit default swaps support his argument that financing fears are overstated.
Key Arguments
- The larger services business is growing faster.
- Credit default swaps have not spiked following the financing announcement.
- Includes Microsoft among companies benefiting from AI.
Risks acknowledged
- The smaller consumer business is growing more slowly.
- Large capital raises can pressure technology investments temporarily.
- Potential buyouts and layoffs contribute to his labor-market concerns.
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin interprets falling CoreWeave credit default swap prices as a favorable inflection in financing anxiety. He emphasizes improvement from the peak while acknowledging that absolute risk pricing remains elevated.
Key Arguments
- Cites a decline in credit default swap pricing from roughly 1150 to 989.
- Argues that identifying changes in risk trends early matters more than focusing solely on elevated levels.
Risks acknowledged
- Credit default swap pricing remains very high.
- Neocloud financing and GPU depreciation remain sources of concern.
Kevin praises Eli Lilly's earnings and increased outlook, disclosing exposure to the company. He presents its rally as an example of healthcare strength during technology financing anxiety, primarily discussing results and an already-realized move.
Key Arguments
- Highlights an approximately 6.4% increase in the annual forecast.
- Praises Mounjaro, Zepbound and adjusted earnings performance.
- Argues that healthcare benefits from rotation when investors become nervous about AI hardware.
TSLATeslaKevin favors buying Tesla volatility as part of an anticipated Tesla–SpaceX combination and reports a recent Tesla purchase. Although he considers standalone Tesla expensive, he believes the combined valuation would offer a discount and that Tesla shareholders would likely receive a takeover premium.
Key Arguments
- Reports purchasing Tesla shares around $360.
- Calculates a market-cap-weighted combined PEG ratio of approximately 2.6 using his stated forecasts.
- Believes stronger growth could reduce the combined PEG ratio toward two.
- Expects a merger to expand financing capacity for AI infrastructure.
- Anticipates a premium for Tesla shares in the proposed transaction.
Risks acknowledged
- Standalone Tesla's forward valuation is expensive by his normal buying criteria.
- The merger could face obstacles or take longer than expected.
- Enormous capital requirements could produce repeated short-term selling pressure.
- He does not expect uninterrupted gains.
NVDANvidiaKevin extends his bullish AI hardware investment stance to Nvidia, expecting massive infrastructure spending to benefit its chips and the surrounding hardware stack. He sees financing-related pressure as temporary while acknowledging eventual chip depreciation.
Key Arguments
- Estimates that roughly 60% of the discussed infrastructure spending would go to Nvidia.
- Expects additional AI capacity ambitions to sustain very large hardware purchases.
- Argues that chips can generate enough returns to repay their cost before losing substantial value.
- Maintains an explicit bullish investment stance toward AI hardware.
Risks acknowledged
- Future capital raises can pressure shareholder returns in the short term.
- Chips will eventually lose significant value.
- The spending estimates depend on ambitious buildout plans.
Predictions (1)
NOWServiceNowKevin attributes ServiceNow's selloff to deteriorating pricing power and costs growing much faster than revenue. He regards this as a persistent company-specific margin problem, without explicitly predicting further stock declines.
Key Arguments
- Highlights approximately 20.5% revenue growth versus 58% growth in subscription expenses.
- Says similar cost and margin warnings were visible in July.
- Believes the company cannot adequately pass hyperscaler costs to customers.
- Argues that reported top-line growth obscures weak underlying economics.
Risks acknowledged
- Acknowledges continued revenue growth.
- Distinguishes ServiceNow's weakness from a marketwide failure of AI investment.
ORCLOracleKevin sees Oracle's improving balance-sheet outlook and falling credit default swaps as evidence that AI financing fears are easing. He reviews an earlier floor call and acknowledges that the stock traded below it; that retrospective call is not a new prediction.
Key Arguments
- Expects positive free cash flow sooner than previously anticipated by the market.
- Describes credit default swaps as declining sharply from their October peak.
- Views Oracle as an important gauge of perceived AI-sector financing risk.
Risks acknowledged
- Acknowledges that his earlier $133 floor call was wrong because the stock fell to approximately $127.
METAMeta PlatformsKevin highlights stabilization in Meta's credit default swaps despite its large financing needs. He treats this as another indication that fear surrounding AI-related borrowing is easing rather than accelerating.
Key Arguments
- Credit default swaps declined for two days before stabilizing.
- Notes that shares were positive despite weakness in other technology names.
Risks acknowledged
- Credit default swaps are stabilizing rather than continuing to decline.
- Large financing requirements contribute to broader market pressure.
Hedges & Caveats
- He repeatedly acknowledges that his bullish outlook could be wrong and describes the commentary as not personalized financial advice.
- An Iran agreement remains uncertain; sustained oil prices above $110 could impair household spending and delay stock gains.
- Rising five-year inflation expectations challenge his expectation of only one rate hike.
- Large financing requirements can pressure hardware-related stocks in the short term.
- His Tesla valuation thesis depends substantially on an anticipated merger whose timing and completion remain uncertain.
- He discloses Apple ownership, recent Tesla purchases and sponsorship by Kalshi.