Behind the video
The Great Reset is Starting.
Overall Thesis
Kevin views the technology selloff as a buying opportunity driven by fear, leverage and tighter liquidity rather than the end of the AI investment boom. He argues that rising AI spending, resilient employment and improving credit protection costs at some major borrowers support a constructive investment stance despite severe volatility.
Narratives
APPAppLovinKevin endorses his AppLovin holding and describes the company as attractively valued despite its sharp rally that day. He highlights advertising opportunities, pricing power, financial strength and upcoming catalysts.
Key Arguments
- Advertising is described as a major next frontier.
- He characterizes its pricing power, valuation, momentum and balance sheet as excellent.
- He cites a PEG ratio around one and upcoming catalysts.
- He explicitly endorses maintaining his exposure.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock has already risen approximately 30% that day.
Predictions (1)
Kevin identifies Eli Lilly as a holding he has been accumulating around $1,090–$1,100. He notes that even this previously strong performer is declining amid indiscriminate selling.
Key Arguments
- He describes an ongoing accumulation history.
- The stock's decline is presented as part of broad selling rather than a company-specific deterioration.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is falling sharply intraday.
Predictions (1)
NVDANvidiaKevin describes Nvidia as a high-quality, cash-generating company whose valuation has become very cheap. He places that assessment within a broader argument for buying quality companies during the selloff, without stating a separate Nvidia target or explicit named-stock trade.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio near 0.59.
- Calls Nvidia fundamentally cheap and profitable.
- Believes AI spending and practical usefulness continue to expand.
Risks acknowledged
- Semiconductors remain highly hyped and sensitive to financial conditions.
- Fear and weak momentum can keep prices disconnected from fundamentals.
MUMicron TechnologyKevin cites Micron's low PEG ratio as evidence of depressed semiconductor valuations. Separately, he warns of memory oversupply while expressing enthusiasm for NAND storage, without translating either sector observation into a specific Micron trade.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 0.35.
- Questions how large a cyclicality discount semiconductor valuations require.
Risks acknowledged
- Expects an oversupply in memory.
- Distinguishes NAND from RAM rather than treating all memory exposure identically.
MSFTMicrosoftKevin argues that Microsoft data-center delays reflect capacity and specification problems rather than disappearing AI demand. He sees its spending commitments and low valuation as constructive, while acknowledging financing and execution pressures.
Key Arguments
- Highlights planned quarterly capital spending exceeding $50 billion and annual spending around $170 billion.
- Attributes spending constraints to third-party capacity delays.
- Persistent AI agents require more compute, memory and revised infrastructure.
- Cites a low PEG ratio.
Risks acknowledged
- Changing specifications and delayed third-party capacity postpone deployment.
- Large fundraising needs contribute to tighter market liquidity.
Kevin includes Lumentum among technology companies trading at unusually low growth-adjusted valuations. The discussion supports his broader valuation thesis without providing an individual target or trade instruction.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 0.72.
- Argues that comparable growth-adjusted valuations would generally be much higher given these companies' margins.
Risks acknowledged
- The group faces cyclicality discounts and weak market momentum.
AVGOBroadcomKevin identifies Broadcom as another company with a low growth-adjusted valuation. His favorable valuation commentary contains no separate named-stock price or return call.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 0.58.
- Argues that the cited technology valuations are unusually depressed.
Risks acknowledged
- The sector faces a cyclicality discount and heightened sensitivity to financial conditions.
ORCLOracleKevin describes Oracle infrastructure delays as part of an AI financing feedback loop. However, falling Oracle credit default swap costs suggest to him that underlying credit stress is not worsening alongside the equity selloff.
Key Arguments
- Infrastructure delays can raise perceived financing risk.
- Oracle credit default swap costs have declined despite stock-market weakness.
Risks acknowledged
- More expensive debt and additional delays could reinforce one another.
- Improving credit protection costs do not eliminate execution risk.
METAMeta PlatformsKevin highlights improving Meta credit default swap costs as evidence against an intensifying AI credit crisis. He also emphasizes its substantial fundraising needs as part of a broader liquidity drain.
Key Arguments
- Credit default swap conditions are becoming less adverse.
- The company continues to seek substantial financing.
Risks acknowledged
- Credit conditions are still not described as healthy.
- Simultaneous borrowing by major technology companies pressures liquidity.
AMZNAmazonKevin uses Amazon's rising commitments as evidence that AI infrastructure spending continues to expand. He also includes Amazon among companies raising money simultaneously, contributing to liquidity pressure.
Key Arguments
- Says commitments increased from approximately $125 billion to $254 billion.
- Treats the increase as evidence against an immediate end to AI investment.
Risks acknowledged
- Large concurrent fundraising needs can tighten financial conditions.
Kevin describes an exceptional Nasdaq-100 decline as evidence of capitulation and forced selling. He favors buying quality companies broadly but does not provide an unambiguous Nasdaq-100-specific forecast.
Key Arguments
- Reports an intraday decline approaching 6%, later around 5%.
- Attributes broad selling to fear, leverage and liquidation pressure.
- Argues that aggregate employment and AI spending remain resilient.
Risks acknowledged
- Declines to call a bottom.
- A further selloff could harm employment and the economy.
- Broad recovery comments do not establish a named-index endpoint.
RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFKevin contrasts RSP trading near all-time highs with severe technology-sector weakness. This is a market-breadth observation rather than a forecast for the fund.
Key Arguments
- Equal-weight performance suggests strength outside the hardest-hit technology companies.
Risks acknowledged
- The fund is slightly down on the day.
SPCXSpaceXKevin mentions SpaceX's approximately 8% decline and its substantial capital-raising requirements. The discussion concerns current market stress and financing needs rather than a share-price forecast.
Key Arguments
- Reports a sharp same-day decline.
- Includes SpaceX among companies requiring substantial new capital.
Risks acknowledged
- Concurrent capital raising across major companies can drain liquidity.
MRVLMarvell TechnologyKevin presents Marvell's growth-adjusted valuation as very low within the semiconductor selloff. He does not state a distinct price forecast or company-specific investment action.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 0.68.
- Uses its valuation to illustrate discounts across technology infrastructure companies.
Risks acknowledged
- Semiconductor valuations remain exposed to cyclical concerns and tightening liquidity.
SNDKSanDiskKevin cites SanDisk's valuation as low and separately favors buying dips in NAND storage. He does not explicitly attach that sector recommendation to SanDisk shares.
Key Arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 1.2.
- Distinguishes his favorable NAND outlook from his concern about memory oversupply.
Risks acknowledged
- The NAND recommendation is sector-level rather than a specific SanDisk call.
- Broader semiconductor sentiment and liquidity remain weak.
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin notes that CoreWeave credit default swaps remain near their peak but have not worsened during the latest selloff. He treats that stabilization as informative without making a CoreWeave equity forecast.
Key Arguments
- Credit protection costs have not increased further despite equity-market stress.
- Uses the company as a gauge of AI financing conditions.
Risks acknowledged
- Credit default swaps remain at elevated peak levels.
- Neocloud financing can be vulnerable to delays and higher borrowing costs.
IRENIRENKevin discusses IREN in connection with delayed Microsoft-related data-center capacity. He argues that such delays can reflect engineering requirements rather than the collapse of AI demand.
Key Arguments
- Persistent agents require changing data-center specifications.
- Microsoft still wants additional capacity and spending.
Risks acknowledged
- Capacity delays can increase financing risk and borrowing costs.
- Headlines about delayed deals can intensify investor fear.
AAPLAppleKevin interprets Apple's bond issuance as a sign that companies are responding to tightening financing conditions. He criticizes Siri and notes unusual divergence between Apple and the Nasdaq-100, without forecasting Apple's share price.
Key Arguments
- Highlights a $7 billion bond raise.
- Notes unusually low correlation with the Nasdaq-100.
- Criticizes the quality of Siri improvements.
Risks acknowledged
- He explicitly says he does not know the reason for the bond issuance.
Kevin describes the semiconductor decline as an extreme capitulation event and favors semiconductor dip buying at the sector level. He also warns that semiconductors remain highly hyped and sensitive to a flattening yield curve, without making a specific SOX index call.
Key Arguments
- Characterizes the decline as the worst since earlier liquidation episodes.
- Cites low valuations across multiple semiconductor companies.
- Views declining sector enthusiasm as a potential buying opportunity.
Risks acknowledged
- Semiconductors remain among the most hyped sectors.
- The sector is particularly sensitive to yield-curve flattening and liquidity pressure.
TSLATeslaKevin mentions Tesla's approximately 10% decline as an example of the day's widespread selling. He makes no separate Tesla investment recommendation or price forecast.
Key Arguments
- Uses the decline to illustrate the severity of the selloff.
Kevin notes that Peloton rallied after earnings before being hit by the broader selloff. He presents the reversal as an example of indiscriminate selling, without a forward investment call.
Key Arguments
- Reports a post-earnings move above $6.
- Contrasts that rally with subsequent market-driven weakness.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is also declining during the broader selloff.
Hedges & Caveats
- He explicitly declines to declare that the market has bottomed.
- Data-center delays and higher borrowing costs can reinforce one another through an AI financing doom loop.
- CoreWeave credit default swaps remain near their peak despite improvement at Oracle and Meta.
- An Iran agreement could help markets, but its timing and likelihood remain uncertain.
- A stock-market decline severe enough to cause layoffs could trigger a recession.
- Aggregate employment strength does not describe every part of the economy.
- He expects an oversupply in memory while distinguishing NAND storage as an opportunity.
- Some risk-appetite charts predate the latest selloff and may understate current stress.
- The general ten-year holding discussion does not establish a separate deadline for any named stock.