Behind the video
The Stock Market, AMD Earnings, and Pre-Election Stream
Overall Thesis
Kevin views the AI hardware selloff as a buying opportunity because earnings, pricing power and infrastructure commitments remain strong. He favors diversified exposure across chip designers, memory, hardware and selected platforms, while acknowledging financing risks, election uncertainty and disruption from Iran.
Narratives
AVGOBroadcomKevin considers Broadcom a bargain and recommends exposure to its custom-chip business. He views it as cheaper than AMD on a growth-adjusted basis.
Key Arguments
- Experienced ASIC designer.
- AI platforms will require custom chips.
- He cites a PEG ratio near 0.63.
Risks acknowledged
- Industry financing and volatility risks apply to the broader AI basket.
Predictions (1)
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesKevin praises AMD's earnings beat, accelerating revenue guidance and improving margins, and recommends buying shares below $520. He expects the stock to remain above that level over the long term, despite initially anticipating a negative earnings reaction.
Key Arguments
- Guidance implies approximately 27% sequential revenue growth and exceeds expectations.
- Gross margins and operating income are improving.
- Local AI deployments and data-center demand support chip demand.
- He recommends AMD within a diversified AI investment basket.
Risks acknowledged
- AMD's PEG ratio is approximately twice Nvidia's.
- Free cash flow is relatively limited, and the company uses warrants and debt financing.
- Client and gaming revenue declined.
- Earnings reactions are unpredictable.
NVDANvidiaKevin calls Nvidia a bargain and recommends buying exposure within a diversified AI basket. Growing hardware demand and comparatively low growth-adjusted valuation underpin his investment view.
Key Arguments
- He cites a PEG ratio near 0.67.
- AI infrastructure commitments continue to rise.
- Local AI and frontier-model spending support chip demand.
Risks acknowledged
- Circular financing creates dependencies.
- AI labs are exploring competing chip designs.
- Hardware stocks remain volatile.
Predictions (1)
MRVLMarvell TechnologyKevin recommends Marvell as part of a diversified AI investment basket. Its custom-chip design role fits his expectation that locally deployed AI will drive hardware spending.
Key Arguments
- Custom ASIC demand
- Exposure across the AI hardware stack
Risks acknowledged
- Concentrating in one stock can expose investors to severe volatility.
Predictions (1)
MUMicron TechnologyKevin calls Micron a bargain after leveraged memory trades unwound. He believes depressed hardware valuations contrast with growing AI spending.
Key Arguments
- PEG ratio cited near 0.33
- Forced selling has reduced valuations
- AI infrastructure demand remains strong
Risks acknowledged
- He expects substantial additional memory supply to come online.
Predictions (1)
Kevin calls SK Hynix dirt cheap and highlights storage as the next area of opportunity. He attributes the selloff partly to leveraged investors being liquidated.
Key Arguments
- Cheap current valuation
- AI hardware commitments continue expanding
- Storage opportunity
Risks acknowledged
- Additional memory supply is expected.
- Sector volatility is substantial.
Predictions (1)
MSFTMicrosoftKevin recommends Microsoft within a diversified AI investment basket. He also questions how lease spending affects the appearance of its free cash flow.
Key Arguments
- AI platform exposure
- Hyperscalers are reinvesting existing cash generation into AI
Risks acknowledged
- Lease accounting can obscure the economic cost of capital spending.
- Financing costs are rising.
Predictions (1)
SPCXSpaceX Class AKevin includes SpaceX in his favorable AI investment basket. He simultaneously emphasizes the scale of its prospective borrowing needs.
Key Arguments
- Participation in the broader AI and space infrastructure buildout
- Endorsed diversified investment exposure
Risks acknowledged
- He estimates SpaceX will need to borrow approximately a trillion dollars.
- Funding such spending is a source of investor nervousness.
Predictions (1)
GOOGLAlphabetKevin explicitly excludes Google from his recommended AI investment basket. He states a current avoidance stance without predicting a particular decline.
Key Arguments
- Personal investment avoidance
Risks acknowledged
- Google is also participating in the wider AI infrastructure buildout.
Predictions (1)
DELLDell TechnologiesKevin describes Dell as becoming attractive again as momentum fades. He welcomes lower prices as an opportunity to buy, while comparing its business with low-margin rack resellers.
Key Arguments
- Momentum selling creates cheaper entry opportunities.
- AI infrastructure demand supports hardware sellers.
Risks acknowledged
- Rack reselling is a relatively low-margin business.
Predictions (1)
INTCIntelKevin argues Intel's earnings weakness reflects poor PC demand rather than a collapse in AI. He identifies Intel as a potential provider of hardware and manufacturing capacity for future local AI deployments.
Key Arguments
- Weak PC demand is distinct from AI demand.
- Local AI can run on owned hardware.
- Chip manufacturing benefits from infrastructure expansion.
Risks acknowledged
- PC results were weak.
- Higher RAM prices constrain consumer purchases.
Kevin identifies Taiwan Semiconductor as a manufacturer supporting the AI chip ecosystem. His remarks describe its role in the hardware supply chain rather than a separate investment call.
Key Arguments
- Manufactures chips designed for AI infrastructure
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin says rising rental prices for older GPUs help support the economics underlying CoreWeave's debt. He also uses its credit-default swaps as a gauge of financing stress, without forecasting its stock.
Key Arguments
- Older GPU rental rates are rising.
- Credit-default swaps remain below previous peaks.
Risks acknowledged
- Debt exposure is substantial.
- Credit stress has increased recently.
ORCLOracleKevin cites Oracle's long-duration bond yield as evidence that AI infrastructure financing is becoming expensive. He provides no distinct Oracle stock call.
Key Arguments
- Higher borrowing costs increase the burden of financing AI infrastructure.
Risks acknowledged
- The broader spending boom remains strong.
Kevin reports a revenue miss despite stronger booking metrics and suspects some economic squeeze between bookings and recognized revenue. He wants to investigate the results and potential AI-agent effects further.
Key Arguments
- Reported revenue fell short of expectations.
- Bookings and room-night metrics were stronger.
Risks acknowledged
- The source of the discrepancy requires further investigation.
Kevin reports beats on revenue, margins and losses for Navitas while noting its decline from meme-driven highs. His adjacent remarks favor buying after selloffs generally, but do not clearly establish a separate Navitas investment action.
Key Arguments
- Revenue and gross margin exceeded expectations.
- Loss per share was smaller than expected.
- The stock is near its 200-day moving average.
Risks acknowledged
- Shares have fallen dramatically from prior highs.
RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFKevin contrasts RSP's relatively modest drawdown with much deeper declines in individual technology and hardware stocks. The comparison is historical rather than a recommendation or return forecast.
Key Arguments
- The cited peak-to-current decline is much smaller than declines in many technology stocks.
AAPLAppleKevin recommends Apple exposure, arguing that Mac Studio adoption and local AI could deliver growth above consensus. He praises improving product and services margins but recognizes that its valuation requires stronger growth.
Key Arguments
- Mac Studios provide hardware for local frontier models.
- Only one week of new Mac Studio sales was reflected in the cited report.
- Product and services margins expanded.
- Strong cash generation and balance sheet.
Risks acknowledged
- Apple is relatively expensive using Wall Street growth estimates.
- His valuation case relies on growth exceeding consensus.
- Some product categories show limited growth.
Predictions (1)
SNDKSanDiskKevin describes SanDisk as dirt cheap following leveraged selling in memory-related stocks. He sees NAND storage as an emerging opportunity within AI infrastructure.
Key Arguments
- Depressed valuation
- NAND capacity has not expanded like memory capacity
- Growing AI hardware spending
Risks acknowledged
- Memory-related equities have experienced severe leveraged swings.
Predictions (1)
Kevin notes Seagate's recent decline and names it within his next-wave storage thesis. The remarks emphasize sector opportunity without clearly specifying a separate Seagate share-price or purchase call.
Key Arguments
- Storage infrastructure is presented as the next area of AI buildout.
- He contrasts NAND expansion with expected memory capacity additions.
Risks acknowledged
- Recent share-price weakness
AMZNAmazonKevin endorses modest Amazon exposure as part of his AI basket. He highlights rapidly growing purchase commitments as evidence the infrastructure boom remains early.
Key Arguments
- AI purchase orders reportedly doubled since August.
- Expanding investment supports the AI buildout thesis.
Risks acknowledged
- Large commitments reduce free cash flow and require financing.
Predictions (1)
TSLATeslaKevin recommends some Tesla exposure in a diversified AI investment basket. He expresses favorable expectations for that basket over time without a standalone Tesla valuation analysis.
Key Arguments
- Included among preferred diversified AI investments
Risks acknowledged
- Single-stock concentration can create painful volatility.
Predictions (1)
PLTRPalantir TechnologiesKevin praises Palantir's cash generation, customer expansion and improving results while warning that AI labs will compete with its platform business. His disclosed exposure and operational commentary do not establish a distinct buy, sell or return forecast.
Key Arguments
- Existing customers are sharply increasing spending.
- Forward-deployment engineers help integrate its platform.
- The company is profitable and results continue improving.
- Anthropic and OpenAI may enter competing software-platform businesses.
- He criticizes the lack of challenging analyst questions.
Risks acknowledged
- Strong operating performance offsets some competitive concerns.
- He retains exposure and praises cash flow.
Kevin interprets Super Micro's sales beat and raised outlook as evidence that the AI buildout remains strong. He reports volatile after-hours trading without making a distinct stock-direction call.
Key Arguments
- Large sales-guidance beat
- Raised full-year sales forecast
- Strong rack-installation demand
Risks acknowledged
- Gross margin is relatively low.
- The initial share-price gain was quickly sold.
Kevin expects a very strong ASML backlog and growth report in January because more companies need chipmaking equipment. This is an operating forecast without a stated share-price or investment-return direction.
Key Arguments
- Growing demand for semiconductor manufacturing machines
- AI spending commitments continue expanding
METAMeta PlatformsKevin uses Meta's locally runnable AI model to illustrate the transition toward platform subscriptions paired with owned hardware. He expects platforms to attract users with generous terms and later raise effective prices.
Key Arguments
- Local model deployment supports hardware demand.
- Platform adoption can create customer lock-in.
Risks acknowledged
- Generous access may later be reduced or repriced.
NBISNebius GroupKevin says stronger GPU rental economics support debt underwriting for Nebius. He distinguishes its debt burden from CoreWeave's without giving a stock forecast.
Key Arguments
- Improving GPU rental rates
- Less debt than CoreWeave
Risks acknowledged
- The broader AI financing cycle carries risk.
Kevin is impressed that Duolingo beat and slightly raised guidance despite AI translation alternatives. He characterizes the large share-price reaction as a bounce from depressed levels.
Key Arguments
- Small revenue and guidance beats
- Resilience despite competing AI tools
Risks acknowledged
- The beat is very small.
- AI-enabled glasses and translation products could reduce demand.
Kevin reports a payment-volume miss and wonders whether restaurant consumers are being squeezed. He also notes slightly stronger guidance and wants to hear management's explanation.
Key Arguments
- Payment volume missed.
- Forward guidance was slightly above expectations.
Risks acknowledged
- Consumer weakness is a hypothesis pending the earnings call.
Kevin notes broad underlying weakness, with many S&P 500 constituents substantially below their highs. He attributes a further-downside estimate to Deutsche Bank rather than making his own specific index forecast.
Key Arguments
- Many constituents are more than 20% below their highs.
- Iran-related uncertainty contributes to choppy trading.
Risks acknowledged
- Some researchers interpret the dispersion as healthy capital reallocation.
- The downside estimate is attributed to a third party.
Hedges & Caveats
- Buy dips without margin; leverage can force liquidation during volatile selloffs.
- Earnings beats can produce falling share prices, and misses can produce rallies.
- AMD and Apple are attractive to him but are not the cheapest AI investments.
- Apple's valuation requires growth above Wall Street's forecasts.
- AI commitments depend on financing and successful execution; the boom could eventually become a bubble.
- Iran and election uncertainty can prolong choppy trading.
- Diversification is preferable to concentrating in one stock or neo-cloud.
- The host describes his comments as not personalized financial advice.