MixedPalantir BLAMED: 123 Children Deaths in Iran [Pentagon Failure]Sep 19, 2026
Open source video →Kevin discusses Palantir being blamed for a deadly targeting error in Iran involving its Maven software, calling the incident a tragedy while separately noting the stock still has valuation-based upside due to strong growth expectations. He expresses discomfort mixing the human tragedy with stock analysis and is uncertain whether he will keep holding shares.
Key arguments
- Palantir's Maven software condensed target vetting from hours to minutes, contributing to a strike that killed 123 children after outdated intelligence wasn't flagged.
- Palantir has a 'line out the door' of customers because of its reputation working with the US military and government on secure data.
- The stock trades at a rich 109x forward P/E, but Palantir's expected 47% growth rate over four years could justify further upside using a PEG-based valuation.
- Several former senior military officials now work for Palantir, which could help sustain government contract relationships.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock's forward P/E of 109x is very rich.
- Palantir denies responsibility for underlying data quality or identifying intelligence deficiencies, which Kevin calls a 'copout.'
- There may need to be more government competition for Palantir given its outsized influence.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishPalantir CEO Leaves CNBC SPEECHLES | UNHINGED INTERVIEWSep 17, 2026
Open source video →Kevin pushes back on Karp's doom-and-gloom framing about AI companies needing nationalization, calling it marketing hype to sell Palantir's platform, but he still believes Palantir itself is fundamentally strong and undervalued based on its growth, cash flow, and pricing power. He argues the stock could be worth around $250 using a more reasonable PEG ratio, and says he continues to buy shares at current levels.
Key arguments
- Palantir has ~$9.4 billion of free cash flow after paying bills of about $500 million
- Revenue is up ~92% while costs are up only 53%, showing strong pricing power
- Growth rate is stable around 47%, giving a PEG ratio of about 23 at current PE of 109
- A more reasonable 3 PEG ratio would justify a stock price closer to $250
- Karp's nationalization/liability fear-mongering is seen as a marketing tactic to sell Palantir's 'sovereign AI' platform
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is not fully priced just based on PE ratio alone
- Some of Karp's argument about liability risk to AI companies may be legitimate marketing but also partly true
- Kevin admits it's a bit of a marketing play by Karp
2 predictions from this thesis
BullishHere we Go | PEAK FEAR IS OVER -- UP WE GO!!!Sep 17, 2026
Open source video →After breaking down Alex Karp's CNBC interview, Kevin argues Palantir's fundamentals (huge free cash flow, high growth, pricing power) justify a premium valuation despite it looking expensive on a plain PE basis. He believes the stock is undervalued relative to its growth trajectory.
Key arguments
- Roughly $9.4 billion of free cash flow after paying bills, with revenue up 92% and costs up only 53%
- Growth stable around 47%, implying a reasonable PEG ratio versus its ~109 PE
- Strong pricing power and selective customer base support premium valuation
Risks acknowledged
- Karp's nationalization/doom narrative around AI labs is viewed as partly self-serving marketing
- Current PE alone does not justify the valuation without factoring in growth
BullishWall Street is Warning: The Crash of 2027 is Coming: PREPARE.Sep 3, 2026
Open source video →Kevin favors buying the dip on Palantir after it approached a key support level, viewing it as a better opportunity than hardware stocks amid a sector rotation into software. He frames this as a tactical, momentum-driven call rather than a long-term price target.
Key arguments
- Palantir sold down to a support level near $164, creating a bullish setup
- Sector rotation is moving from hardware into software, benefiting Palantir
- Made the bullish call before market open and it played out intraday
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishThe Fed JUST Bailed Us Out.Sep 3, 2026
Open source video →Palantir was highlighted as the stock that had sold off the most over the prior few days, making it the top dip-buy candidate in the morning alpha report; it was up roughly 8-9% by the time of the video. Kevin expressed enthusiasm about the bounce but this reflects a recap of an already-realized move, not a new prediction.
Key arguments
- Sold off the most recently, creating the best bounce opportunity
- Up about 8-9% intraday after being flagged in the morning report
NeutralPalantir CEO Investing in NEW Military Tech [Buy THIS Stock?]Sep 1, 2026
Open source video →The video centers on reports that Palantir CEO Alex Karp is personally investing in a new Ukrainian-founded defense venture fund focused on drone and interceptor technology. Kevin frames this as evidence of Palantir's broader positioning across multiple sides of ongoing conflicts, but does not offer a specific price or stock-level thesis on PLTR itself.
Key arguments
- Karp reportedly the first major investor in a new defense fund started by Ukraine's former defense minister
- Palantir markets its AI systems as critical to conflicts involving Russia/Ukraine and Iran/Israel
- Karp's private investment activity suggests continued deep involvement in the defense/AI sector
BullishThe Software Stock Bottom is IN: Is it TOO LATE to Buy?Aug 29, 2026
Open source video →Kevin owns Palantir, bought around $118, and believes it remains undervalued using a PEG-based model that yields a ~$222 fair value, though he thinks even that figure understates true upside by 20-30%.
Key arguments
- Bought shares around $118 before the Q3 rally
- PEG-based model (25 PEG) implies a $222 fair value
- Believes the $222 model output is 20-30% too conservative, implying more upside
2 predictions from this thesis
BullishMajor Earnings: Marvell, Iren, Autodesk, Affirm, Workday StockAug 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin highlights Palantir's pricing power and exclusivity as reasons investors are drawn to the stock, while cautioning that its valuation looks expensive mainly because it recently transitioned from losses to profitability, which distorts ratio-based valuation.
Key arguments
- Massive pricing power and exclusivity driving investor demand
- Valuation ratios look inflated partly because of the recent transition from losses to profit
Risks acknowledged
- Small earnings base can make P/E-style ratios look deceptively high
BullishThe AI Stock Rally is BACK. For Now.Aug 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin views Palantir as having a better valuation than CrowdStrike given its higher net revenue retention and expanding role in cybersecurity via its Apollo platform, though he does not hold a specific price target.
Key arguments
- Net revenue retention around 150% on relatively low customer growth, described as very attractive
- Expanding into autonomous cyber remediation via its Apollo platform
- Used by companies like Boston Scientific as an enterprise data layer, showing broad platform stickiness
Risks acknowledged
- Still early/unclear how far along Palantir's dedicated cybersecurity push (Apollo) actually is
BullishThe NEXT AI 10x Stock Sector I'm BUYINGAug 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin mentions Palantir favorably as a comparison point to CrowdStrike, noting its high net revenue retention and describing its valuation as more attractive than CrowdStrike's on current Wall Street estimates, though he does not make a specific price prediction.
Key arguments
- Palantir's net revenue retention is around 150%+ despite only ~3% customer growth, which Kevin calls appealing
- Palantir is dabbling in cybersecurity via its Apollo program, though Kevin says it's unclear how far along that effort is
- Kevin states he believes Palantir has a better valuation right now than CrowdStrike based on Wall Street estimates
NeutralWhy this AI Software Stock is an EASY 3x from HERE.Aug 15, 2026
Open source video →Kevin repeatedly uses Palantir as the benchmark for pricing power and AI-driven software margins, calling it 'goated' at monetizing existing customers, but he makes no explicit price prediction for the stock in this video. Palantir serves mainly as a comparison point to frame UiPath's smaller scale and earlier-stage AI transition.
Key arguments
- Palantir's net revenue retention has skyrocketed even as customer count growth slowed
- Palantir's forward deployment engineer model and government contract base give it outsized pricing power
- Palantir is roughly 52x larger than UiPath by market cap
Risks acknowledged
- Palantir's customer count growth has also slowed recently
BullishStarting Over, the Lying Job Market, AI Collapse, & Investing.Aug 11, 2026
Open source video →Kevin sees Palantir as a standout example of a company that has successfully turned AI into monetizable pricing power, unlike the commoditized data center infrastructure plays.
Key arguments
- Palantir has already demonstrated pricing power from AI-driven enterprise products
- Enterprise AI use cases don't require bleeding-edge hardware, favoring companies that build software value on top of commodity compute
1 prediction from this thesis