Meet Kevin on SNDK
Every thesis Meet Kevin has voiced on SNDK — 11 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
BullishThe Historic Stock Market Selloff.Nov 5, 2026
Open source video →Kevin expresses an affirmative investment view on SanDisk and considers its shares substantially cheap after the decline. He particularly likes its NAND exposure and product mix.
Key arguments
- He prefers NAND exposure over purely RAM exposure.
- The stock's decline has improved its perceived valuation.
- He describes himself as a big fan in response to the stock discussion.
Risks acknowledged
- Price momentum has deteriorated sharply.
- The stock has retraced beyond a prior reference point.
- No valuation model or price target is provided.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishLIQUIDATION: The Stock Market Pain Continues.Nov 5, 2026
Open source video →Kevin includes SanDisk among attractively valued companies worth owning during the selloff. He separately favors NAND storage over other memory because he expects less oversupply in NAND.
Key arguments
- Approximately 1.2 PEG valuation.
- Explicit bullish stance on buying the dip in NAND storage.
Risks acknowledged
- Broader memory and semiconductor markets remain cyclical.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishThe Great Reset is Starting.Nov 5, 2026
Open source video →Kevin cites SanDisk's valuation as low and separately favors buying dips in NAND storage. He does not explicitly attach that sector recommendation to SanDisk shares.
Key arguments
- Cites a PEG ratio around 1.2.
- Distinguishes his favorable NAND outlook from his concern about memory oversupply.
Risks acknowledged
- The NAND recommendation is sector-level rather than a specific SanDisk call.
- Broader semiconductor sentiment and liquidity remain weak.
BullishYIKES: The Election JUST Flipped Everything.Nov 4, 2026
Open source video →Kevin references his SanDisk earnings-call coverage as part of his optimistic AI hardware narrative. He does not make a separate SanDisk share-price or investment-return call.
Key arguments
- He directs viewers to his SanDisk earnings-call video.
- He describes AI infrastructure and hardware exposure as an early-stage opportunity.
Risks acknowledged
- His sector-level buying stance does not identify SanDisk as a specific purchase.
- Election-related uncertainty may cause short-term selling.
BullishThe Start of the AI Boom (Or Depression) [How Cooked are We?!?!]Nov 3, 2026
Open source video →The host calls SanDisk dirt cheap after selling pressure in memory-related hardware. He considers NAND a potentially important next area of demand.
Key arguments
- Current valuation described as very cheap
- NAND capacity has not expanded like memory capacity
Risks acknowledged
- Hardware shares have experienced leverage-driven volatility.
1 prediction from this thesis
Strongly BullishThe Stock Market, AMD Earnings, and Pre-Election StreamNov 3, 2026
Open source video →Kevin describes SanDisk as dirt cheap following leveraged selling in memory-related stocks. He sees NAND storage as an emerging opportunity within AI infrastructure.
Key arguments
- Depressed valuation
- NAND capacity has not expanded like memory capacity
- Growing AI hardware spending
Risks acknowledged
- Memory-related equities have experienced severe leveraged swings.
1 prediction from this thesis
MixedElection, Fed, & Iran Fears | Buying the DipOct 23, 2026
Open source video →Kevin says his earlier bearishness is giving way to interest as SanDisk reaches its 200-day moving average. The passage indicates a changing assessment rather than a clear current forecast or purchase recommendation.
Key arguments
- A large price decline has brought the stock to its 200-day moving average.
Risks acknowledged
- He previously held a bearish view on SanDisk.
Bearishwhy the market just tankedOct 14, 2026
Open source video →Kevin explicitly expresses a bearish investment stance on SanDisk alongside commoditized memory. His broader thesis is that supply expansion and Chinese competition threaten memory pricing and investment performance.
Key arguments
- He explicitly states that he is bearish on SanDisk.
- Commoditized products face pricing pressure as supply expands.
- Chinese manufacturing may compete at lower costs.
Risks acknowledged
- His broader hardware outlook becomes bullish after Iran and memory concerns clear.
1 prediction from this thesis
Bearishomg what's happeningOct 14, 2026
Open source video →Kevin explicitly states a bearish investment stance on SanDisk alongside his bearish memory-cycle view. He connects the broader concern to commoditization and expanding supply.
Key arguments
- He believes the memory cycle peaked in 2026.
- Additional supply can pressure pricing for commoditized products.
- Chinese competition could intensify pressure on incumbent suppliers.
Risks acknowledged
- Cheaper memory could benefit other hardware companies.
1 prediction from this thesis
BearishThe Memory Collapse JUST Started | Here's WHY.Aug 24, 2026
Open source video →SanDisk fell about 11% as part of the broader memory sector selloff triggered by Samsung's disappointing buyback guidance, even though Kevin notes SanDisk is technically more of a storage play than a pure memory chipmaker. He treats it as swept up in sector-wide sentiment rather than having a distinct thesis of its own in this segment.
Key arguments
- SanDisk dropped roughly 11% in sympathy with the Samsung/Micron memory selloff.
- SanDisk previously received large non-refundable upfront deposits from customers, which could reverse if contracts get cancelled in a downturn.
MixedBuy Sandisk Stock NOW? The HBF Moonshot and 3 Problems.Aug 17, 2026
Open source video →Kevin lays out a genuinely mixed case on SanDisk: the income statement, revenue growth, and pricing power look phenomenal and the stock trades at a low headline PE, but he flags three structural concerns — off-balance-sheet manufacturing risk via Flash Ventures, upfront hyperscaler deposits inflating current cash flow, and a Wall Street growth forecast implying an effectively infinite PEG ratio due to expected negative EPS growth in coming years. He also argues SanDisk's investor-day comparison of High Bandwidth Flash to High Bandwidth Memory used misleading assumptions (BF16, fixed bandwidth) to make HBF look more competitive than it truly is for AI training workloads, though he thinks HBF still has legitimate inference use cases.
Key arguments
- Revenue grew 4.7x with falling costs, largely driven by pricing power (23% of Q4 revenue increase was from price hikes alone)
- Company trades at ~8.9x PE which looks cheap, but forward EPS growth estimates turn sharply negative in following years, making the PEG ratio effectively infinite
- Flash Ventures joint venture with Kioxia hides real capex/manufacturing risk off the balance sheet, creating contingent liability exposure
- Refund liability/deposit structure from hyperscaler contracts (~$2B in prepayments) inflates current operating cash flow and has partly funded buybacks
- SanDisk's investor day HBM vs HBF comparison used a non-representative BF16 model and fixed bandwidth assumptions that obscure HBF's weakness in training/mixture-of-experts workloads
- Forecasted bit volume growth of only ~16% combined with consensus expectations of declining average selling prices creates the negative growth outlook
Risks acknowledged
- Mizuho (referred to as Mazou) believes average selling prices could be flat to slightly up rather than declining 15-20% as consensus expects
- High Bandwidth Flash could still succeed as a legitimate complementary inference/storage tool even if it's not a replacement for HBM in training
- Company's balance sheet and current income statement are strong, with product two-thirds sold out through fiscal 2028
