Behind the video
LIQUIDATION: The Stock Market Pain Continues.
Overall Thesis
Kevin regards the technology selloff as a buying opportunity driven by leverage, liquidations and exaggerated fears of restrictions on data centers. He argues that rising AI spending and resilient employment support the longer-term investment case, while tighter financial conditions reduce the need for further Federal Reserve hikes.
Narratives
ORCLOracleKevin describes Oracle's infrastructure delays as one source of the AI financing doom loop. He also observes that its credit-default-swap costs are improving despite the stock selloff.
Key Arguments
- Gas infrastructure delays contribute to investor concern.
- Improving credit protection pricing argues against worsening debt panic.
Risks acknowledged
- Delays can raise financing costs and create further delays.
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesKevin considers AMD overvalued in the high $600s and better valued around $520. He describes the ongoing decline toward its moving average as part of the semiconductor liquidation.
Key Arguments
- He identifies approximately $520 as a more reasonable valuation.
- Qualcomm's earnings disappointment contributes to semiconductor pressure.
Risks acknowledged
- AMD remains exposed to a sharp sector selloff.
HOODRobinhood MarketsKevin welcomes Robinhood's decline toward his $69 target as an attractive prospective entry. He does not explicitly forecast a further decline to that level.
Key Arguments
- He calls the approach to his $69 target 'juicy'.
Risks acknowledged
- Robinhood is experiencing a double-digit daily decline.
Predictions (1)
APPAppLovinKevin endorses his AppLovin holding and regards it as attractively valued despite its large daily rally. He highlights pricing power, balance-sheet quality and upcoming catalysts.
Key Arguments
- Approximately one PEG valuation.
- Strong pricing power and balance sheet.
- Advertising is a promising investment frontier.
- Upcoming catalysts support his enthusiasm.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is already up approximately 30% on the day.
Predictions (1)
MUMicron TechnologyKevin argues that Micron's valuation reflects an excessive discount for memory cyclicality. He explicitly agrees with the bullish assessment that the memory sector could double, while acknowledging the possibility of oversupply.
Key Arguments
- He describes Micron's PEG valuation as approximately 0.3–0.35.
- He agrees that current memory valuations price in an unusually severe earnings contraction.
- He explicitly endorses a sector-doubling assessment in the Micron-led discussion.
Risks acknowledged
- Memory stocks historically suffer prolonged cyclical downturns.
- He expects an oversupply in memory, distinguishing it from NAND storage.
MSFTMicrosoftKevin views Microsoft as cheaply valued and includes it among quality companies worth owning during the selloff. He argues that delayed spending reflects infrastructure bottlenecks rather than deteriorating AI demand.
Key Arguments
- Microsoft expects capital expenditure to accelerate.
- Revised infrastructure specifications and third-party delays explain spending shortfalls.
- He places Microsoft among companies with very low PEG valuations.
Risks acknowledged
- Third-party capacity deliveries are delayed.
- Microsoft is scrutinizing riskier Neocloud projects.
Predictions (1)
Kevin includes Lumentum in his list of unusually inexpensive quality companies during the selloff. His ownership recommendation favors buying the valuation dislocation without leverage.
Key Arguments
- Approximately 0.72 PEG valuation in his discussion.
- Grouped with quality companies he recommends owning.
Risks acknowledged
- AI infrastructure delays and sector liquidation can continue.
Predictions (1)
MRVLMarvell TechnologyKevin includes Marvell among quality AI-related companies whose valuations have become very low. He endorses owning these companies through the selloff without leverage.
Key Arguments
- Approximately 0.68 PEG valuation in his discussion.
- Current ownership recommendation accompanies the valuation list.
Risks acknowledged
- Cyclicality and tighter liquidity warrant some discount.
Predictions (1)
AVGOBroadcomKevin considers Broadcom's valuation unusually low within his recommended group of quality companies. He argues that the selloff applies too large a cyclicality discount.
Key Arguments
- Approximately 0.58 PEG valuation.
- AI spending remains strong despite delays.
Risks acknowledged
- Semiconductor cyclicality merits some valuation discount.
Predictions (1)
NVDANvidiaKevin regards Nvidia as a high-quality, cash-generating company whose valuation has become exceptionally cheap. He frames the selloff as a buying opportunity rather than evidence that the AI investment boom has ended.
Key Arguments
- Approximately 0.59 PEG valuation.
- AI infrastructure spending commitments continue to increase.
- Fear, weak momentum and leverage explain the price decline better than collapsing demand.
Risks acknowledged
- Semiconductors face liquidity sensitivity and crowded positioning.
- Data-center delays can affect the buildout.
Predictions (1)
SNDKSanDiskKevin includes SanDisk among attractively valued companies worth owning during the selloff. He separately favors NAND storage over other memory because he expects less oversupply in NAND.
Key Arguments
- Approximately 1.2 PEG valuation.
- Explicit bullish stance on buying the dip in NAND storage.
Risks acknowledged
- Broader memory and semiconductor markets remain cyclical.
Predictions (1)
QQQInvesco QQQ TrustKevin tracks QQQ's severe intraday decline and tentative stabilization around the 650 area. He hopes a bottom is forming but repeatedly refuses to declare one, so these observations do not establish a separate directional forecast for the fund.
Key Arguments
- Leveraged positions and algorithmic selling amplify losses.
- The previous 700 support became resistance.
- Several attempted intraday bounces occur.
Risks acknowledged
- He does not know whether the day's bottom is in.
- Liquidation could extend.
RSPInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFKevin uses RSP's relative resilience as evidence that the initial damage is concentrated in technology. He notes that the fund also turns lower as selling broadens.
Key Arguments
- Equal-weight performance contrasts with heavily concentrated technology exposure.
- Some consumer and defensive stocks initially hold up.
Risks acknowledged
- RSP is also down during the session.
METAMeta PlatformsKevin treats Meta's growing infrastructure commitments as evidence that AI investment demand remains intact. Declining credit-default-swap costs during the equity selloff suggest to him that financing fears are stabilizing.
Key Arguments
- Credit-default-swap costs have fallen from their peak.
- Large financing activity anticipates tighter fundraising conditions.
- Data centers could move to more welcoming jurisdictions.
Risks acknowledged
- Long-term debt financing has become more expensive.
- Regulatory and construction delays remain possible.
CRWVCoreWeaveKevin sees CoreWeave's stable credit-default-swap pricing as a counterpoint to the equity panic. He nevertheless emphasizes the vulnerability of smaller, indebted data-center operators to delays and concentrated customers.
Key Arguments
- Credit-default-swap costs are not making new highs during the selloff.
- Microsoft's demand helped enable rapid Neocloud expansion.
Risks acknowledged
- Credit protection remains expensive.
- Delays and financing constraints can threaten smaller operators.
AMZNAmazonKevin cites Amazon's sharply increased spending commitments as evidence against the claim that the AI boom has ended. This is an operational demand argument without a separate Amazon share-price or investment recommendation.
Key Arguments
- He says commitments increased from approximately $125 billion to $254 billion.
- Rich technology companies continue expanding AI investment.
Risks acknowledged
- Simultaneous fundraising by large technology companies tightens capital availability.
SPCXSpaceX Class AKevin reports SpaceX's substantial daily share-price decline and discusses its large fundraising needs. Its credit-default-swap pricing has not worsened during the latest volatility, but he provides no separate share-price forecast.
Key Arguments
- Credit spreads peaked before the latest session.
- Large capital requirements add to competition for financing.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock is experiencing a severe daily decline.
- Fundraising may become more difficult.
Kevin reports owning Eli Lilly and describes earlier purchases. Its initial defensive strength gives way to intraday selling, without a new explicit hold, add or return forecast.
Key Arguments
- Healthcare initially attracts defensive flows.
- He discloses ownership and historical entry levels.
Risks acknowledged
- Even Eli Lilly falls as selling becomes indiscriminate.
Kevin observes that Peloton initially rallied after earnings before being pulled lower by the selloff. He discusses its revenue outlook and potential equipment expansion without making a share-price forecast.
Key Arguments
- Shares initially rose above $6 after earnings.
- Holiday revenue guidance slightly exceeded expectations.
Risks acknowledged
- The broader selloff erodes the earnings rally.
IRENIRENKevin discusses IREN's data-center delivery problems as evidence of infrastructure bottlenecks. He argues that Microsoft still wants the capacity, but cabling changes, equipment shortages and other delays impede delivery.
Key Arguments
- Reports identify network specification changes and missing equipment.
- Microsoft's spending intentions remain strong.
Risks acknowledged
- Smaller operators have less capacity to absorb delays and financing pressure.
AAPLAppleKevin notes Apple's unusually low correlation with the Nasdaq-100 and its initial relative resilience. He criticizes Siri and interprets Apple's bond issuance as another sign of tighter fundraising conditions.
Key Arguments
- Apple announces its first bond raise in over a year.
- Its historical correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has fallen unusually far.
Risks acknowledged
- Apple eventually participates in the broader selloff.
TSLATeslaKevin reports Tesla's approximately 10% daily decline and compares its low with an earlier liquidation. He praises its autonomous-driving lead, but does not make a distinct Tesla investment-direction call.
Key Arguments
- He regards Tesla as ahead of competing autonomous-driving platforms.
- The decline occurs amid indiscriminate technology liquidation.
Risks acknowledged
- Shares briefly reach approximately $297.
- The broader selloff remains severe.
BTCBitcoinKevin tracks Bitcoin's decline alongside technology stocks. He reports price observations around $78,000 and then $76,000 without stating a forward investment view.
Key Arguments
- Bitcoin participates in the broad risk-asset selloff.
Hedges & Caveats
- He declines to declare that the intraday bottom is in.
- A prolonged stock-market decline could cause layoffs and eventually recession.
- An Iran agreement remains uncertain, with less electoral pressure to reach one.
- Data-center delays, component shortages, financing costs and potential moratoria are real obstacles.
- Semiconductor earnings are cyclical and deserve some valuation discount.
- He warns against margin and leveraged ETFs.
- Claims about hedge-fund failures include rumors; he clarifies that Walleye is returning capital rather than declaring bankruptcy.