Meet Kevin on SPCX
Every thesis Meet Kevin has voiced on SPCX — 14 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
BullishIT'S STARTING.Nov 4, 2026
Open source video →Kevin endorses the investment value of Tesla and SpaceX together if the acquisition proceeds. His preference for Tesla reflects the anticipated acquisition premium rather than an expectation that SpaceX shares will fall.
Key arguments
- The combined valuation is described as a good deal.
- Data-center investment is expected to continue despite changes in construction locations.
Risks acknowledged
- The acquisition remains uncertain.
- SpaceX may pay the premium for Tesla.
- The businesses would need considerable debt to finance data centers.
1 prediction from this thesis
NeutralInvesting in AI Venture Capital with Just $500 (Here’s How)Nov 4, 2026
Open source video →SpaceX is briefly identified as an exposure available through USVC's portfolio. Kevin provides no SpaceX-specific valuation analysis, investment recommendation or expected share-price direction.
Key arguments
- SpaceX appears among the companies to which the promoted fund provides exposure.
- The broader presentation favors access to venture investments, rather than establishing a separate thesis for SpaceX shares.
Risks acknowledged
- Fund investments involve fees, liquidity restrictions and potential losses.
- Enthusiasm about the fund does not establish an expected return for SpaceX.
BullishThe Start of the AI Boom (Or Depression) [How Cooked are We?!?!]Nov 3, 2026
Open source video →The host endorses SpaceX exposure within his AI portfolio. He also anticipates enormous borrowing needs to fund its infrastructure ambitions.
Key arguments
- AI infrastructure and space-chip spending exposure
- Included in an endorsed long-term investment basket
Risks acknowledged
- Potential borrowing needs of approximately one trillion dollars
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishThe Stock Market, AMD Earnings, and Pre-Election StreamNov 3, 2026
Open source video →Kevin includes SpaceX in his favorable AI investment basket. He simultaneously emphasizes the scale of its prospective borrowing needs.
Key arguments
- Participation in the broader AI and space infrastructure buildout
- Endorsed diversified investment exposure
Risks acknowledged
- He estimates SpaceX will need to borrow approximately a trillion dollars.
- Funding such spending is a source of investor nervousness.
1 prediction from this thesis
MixedTrump Accepts Iran Deal Framework | Market Dot Com CRASH Levels.Nov 3, 2026
Open source video →Kevin treats a potentially enormous SpaceX borrowing requirement as plausible and consistent with his earlier financing concerns. He does not connect that funding requirement to an expected share-price move.
Key arguments
- He says a trillion-dollar borrowing requirement would not surprise him.
- He references his earlier discussion of a trillion-dollar financing problem.
Risks acknowledged
- The borrowing estimate is initially attributed to Bill Ackman and remains speculative.
BullishThe Falling Stock Market.Oct 30, 2026
Open source video →Kevin identifies approximately 132–133 as a floor for SpaceX shares. He also argues that an investment-grade credit rating gives SpaceX a financing advantage over Anthropic.
Key arguments
- He identifies a specific share-price support zone.
- He describes SpaceX's investment-grade funding access as a competitive advantage.
- Its rocket and Starlink businesses diversify its exposure beyond AI.
Risks acknowledged
- SpaceX shares are falling during the session.
- SpaceX also needs to raise substantial capital for future spending.
- Anthropic could have substantially more cash after its prospective IPO.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishAnthropic JUST Crashed the Market: Explained.Oct 30, 2026
Open source video →Kevin presents SpaceX's investment-grade credit rating as a relative financing advantage over Anthropic. He attributes potential credit strength to its diversified rocket and Starlink businesses, without making an explicit SpaceX share-price prediction.
Key arguments
- An investment-grade rating can support access to a broader pool of debt buyers.
- He describes the rating contrast as a relative win for SpaceX.
- Rocket and Starlink operations diversify the business beyond AI.
Risks acknowledged
- SpaceX still needs to raise substantial capital.
- He estimates Anthropic could have considerably more cash available after its IPO.
NeutralPrepare for the Fed Meeting (and War???)Oct 28, 2026
Open source video →Kevin briefly notes a modest decline in SpaceX shares and includes the company among a broader set of AI competitors. He makes no explicit investment-return prediction.
Key arguments
- More AI participants could reduce the ecosystem's dependence on individual laboratories.
- SpaceX shares are described as slightly lower during the session.
Bullishholy sh*t JENSEN!!!Oct 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin includes SpaceX in the group of AI-related investments he is bullish on and has been buying. He also places it among the companies supporting AI infrastructure demand and discusses Tesla as another route to exposure.
Key arguments
- Explicitly includes SpaceX in his bullish investment stance.
- Includes SpaceX among the broader AI infrastructure underwriters.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishBIG WEEK: Fed, Rates, Catalysts, Fear, Stocks, RecoveryOct 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin includes SpaceX among AI-related investments he has been excited about and buying. Most of the detailed discussion concerns chip financing and leases, which support his broader liquidity thesis without establishing separate share-price targets.
Key arguments
- He discusses 40 billion dollars of debt and a separate 40 billion dollar chip lease.
- Access to funding suggests continued AI infrastructure expansion.
- He includes SpaceX among investments with portfolio exposure.
Risks acknowledged
- The debt pricing and closing were not finalized.
- Further substantial fundraising may still be required.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishPrepare for the *MEGA* Flip THIS WEEKOct 26, 2026
Open source video →Kevin treats SpaceX's reported ability to raise substantial GPU-related debt as evidence that the AI infrastructure boom can continue. He views its launch and Starlink revenue as financing advantages, while questioning Musk's incentives in criticizing smaller competitors.
Key arguments
- Independent operating revenue supports access to financing.
- The reported $40 billion debt raise indicates continued capital availability.
- Financially stronger companies could acquire distressed infrastructure.
Risks acknowledged
- Musk's statements may serve his own fundraising and acquisition interests.
- The host is unsure whether Musk has information beyond public credit-market discussion.
- The discussion concerns financing and business positioning rather than a specific share-price forecast.
MixedPost SPCX Earnings | Iran, Tesla, Rates, AI ChipsOct 21, 2026
Open source video →Kevin interprets SpaceX's initial post-earnings strength as institutional acceptance of its large funding requirements, while repeatedly noting rejection near 165.23. He views increased compute revenue and prepayments as evidence of real AI demand rather than an imminent collapse.
Key arguments
- The stock initially approached the upper end of the previously identified trading range.
- Superintelligence compute revenue and prepayments support his argument that customers are committing substantial money.
- SpaceX's results reinforce his view that AI infrastructure demand remains strong.
Risks acknowledged
- The initial move rejected near the upper technical line.
- He was surprised institutions supported the stock amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- A future labor-market downturn could undermine the financing needed for continued capital expenditure.
MixedEven I’m Getting NervousOct 21, 2026
Open source video →Kevin presents SpaceX's AI-compute revenue and customer deposits as evidence of strong current infrastructure demand. He also warns that a future labor-market downturn could constrain the funding supporting this expansion, without predicting SpaceX's share price or return.
Key arguments
- He says revenue from renting compute has approximately tripled.
- He cites additional prepayment deposits as evidence that hyperscaler demand is translating into financial commitments.
- He argues that current funding supports continued AI infrastructure expansion.
Risks acknowledged
- He acknowledges that some revenue reflects the deployment of capital spending.
- He expects a future labor-market downturn to weaken stock markets and infrastructure funding.
Strongly Bullishholy sh*t spaceX stockOct 20, 2026
Open source video →The host considers SpaceX inexpensive at roughly one PEG and explicitly maintains his bullish investment stance without selling shares. He emphasizes compute revenue growth and customer prepayments, while recognizing substantial financing needs and temporary contributions to earnings.
Key arguments
- Compute revenue nearly tripled, while deferred revenue increased by approximately $2.8 billion, indicating customers are paying ahead of service delivery.
- Higher Starlink average revenue per user and connectivity growth support a second growth engine.
- The company reported its first profitable public quarter.
- A potential Tesla merger could facilitate fundraising, and planned debt issuance could reduce stock dilution.
- The host characterizes SpaceX's valuation at roughly one PEG as inexpensive.
Risks acknowledged
- The host estimates approximately $433 billion of additional funding may be needed.
- Free cash flow was negative approximately $35 billion over nine months.
- About $1 billion in other income partly reflects temporary benefits.
- Space launches and connectivity are growing more slowly than compute.
- Starlink deployment has experienced substantial delays.
1 prediction from this thesis
