Meet Kevin on NBIS
Every thesis Meet Kevin has voiced on NBIS — 11 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
BullishThe Start of the AI Boom (Or Depression) [How Cooked are We?!?!]Nov 3, 2026
Open source video →The host says increasing GPU rental prices are helpful for underwriting Nebius debt. He distinguishes its lower debt burden from CoreWeave without making a share-price prediction.
Key arguments
- Rising GPU rental rates
- Less debt than CoreWeave
Risks acknowledged
- The broader buildout still requires substantial financing
BullishThe Stock Market, AMD Earnings, and Pre-Election StreamNov 3, 2026
Open source video →Kevin says stronger GPU rental economics support debt underwriting for Nebius. He distinguishes its debt burden from CoreWeave's without giving a stock forecast.
Key arguments
- Improving GPU rental rates
- Less debt than CoreWeave
Risks acknowledged
- The broader AI financing cycle carries risk.
BullishBIG WEEK: Fed, Rates, Catalysts, Fear, Stocks, RecoveryOct 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin sees technical rebound potential toward 216 and eventually 339 if credit stress subsides. He distinguishes that technical upside from a demanding fundamental valuation and delayed profitability.
Key arguments
- A reversal in the CoreWeave credit-default-swap cycle could support a rebound.
- 216 is the first technical level to recapture.
- 339 represents roughly a technical doubling from the discussed price.
Risks acknowledged
- The stock remains fundamentally expensive.
- Positive earnings are not expected until 2029.
- The earlier breakout setup failed as credit concerns intensified.
2 predictions from this thesis
MixedPrepare for the *MEGA* Flip THIS WEEKOct 26, 2026
Open source video →Kevin says Nebius has a substantially better balance sheet than CoreWeave. Nevertheless, he includes neoclouds in his stated investment avoidance because of financing, competition and consolidation risks.
Key arguments
- Nebius is presented as financially stronger than CoreWeave.
- Neoclouds lack the diversified revenue streams of major technology companies.
- Large hyperscalers could benefit from smaller operators' distress.
Risks acknowledged
- Some neoclouds are better capitalized than others.
- He does not believe the financing opportunity has necessarily disappeared.
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishPost SPCX Earnings | Iran, Tesla, Rates, AI ChipsOct 21, 2026
Open source video →Kevin argues that Nebius is financially stronger than critics suggest because depreciation accounts for its reported operating loss. He presents this as a rebuttal to an AI-collapse narrative and states that he has no investment stake in the argument.
Key arguments
- Revenue growth supports his assessment of operating demand.
- Adding back chip depreciation changes his interpretation of profitability.
- He rejects the claim that Nebius is on the edge of default.
Risks acknowledged
- The company reports an operating loss.
- Chip depreciation is a real expense and may become more consequential later.
- His discussion does not state where Nebius shares will trade.
BullishEven I’m Getting NervousOct 21, 2026
Open source video →Kevin argues that Nebius's financial condition is better than bearish commentary suggests. He treats depreciation as central to its reported operating loss and disputes an imminent default narrative, without making a call on its shares.
Key arguments
- He attributes the reported operating loss to chip depreciation.
- He argues that adding back depreciation makes the business profitable on that adjusted basis.
- He rejects Nebius as the immediate trigger for an AI-sector collapse.
Risks acknowledged
- The company reports an operating loss.
- Adding back depreciation does not eliminate the eventual economic risk of chip depreciation.
- He says he has no investment interest in Nebius.
BullishHow Midterms will F**K Up the Stock MarketOct 7, 2026
Open source video →The host expects Nebius to break out toward 336 while arguing that neocloud growth depends on reduced opposition to data centers. Financing access and the operational complexity of running data centers remain important constraints.
Key arguments
- The host states his own near-term breakout expectation.
- Reduced political opposition would allow neoclouds to finance additional capacity and grow.
- AI usage and demand for compute are expanding.
Risks acknowledged
- Data center financing becomes harder when political restrictions intensify.
- Buying chips alone is insufficient; facilities require substantial engineering and operational support.
- Established hyperscalers may gain an advantage if new capacity is constrained.
2 predictions from this thesis
NeutralAnthropic *SUDDENLY* Delays IPO & Nscale IPO Looks BADSep 18, 2026
Open source video →The host views Nebius's balance sheet as comparatively healthier than CoreWeave's or Nscale's, citing sizable cash and plant/property/equipment relative to debt, though he does not hold a position and offers no forward price view.
Key arguments
- Nebius has roughly $8 billion in cash and $13 billion in plant, property and equipment against $8.5 billion in long-term debt
- The host states 'their balance sheet is actually okay' compared to peers
Risks acknowledged
- The host clarifies he has no position in Nebius and is only assessing balance sheet health, not making a directional call
BullishHere we Go | PEAK FEAR IS OVER -- UP WE GO!!!Sep 17, 2026
Open source video →Kevin highlights Nebius's strong balance sheet, sizable cash position, and manageable debt load as reasons to view it favorably compared to more indebted neoclouds, especially amid rising borrowing costs.
Key arguments
- Nebius maintained roughly $8 billion in cash even after spending, with payables and long-term debt fairly stable
- Expected to receive over $9 billion in prepayments this year, reducing financing risk
- Consistent balance sheet strength over the last two quarters
Risks acknowledged
- Heavy reliance on large upfront customer payments could mask true cash flow sustainability
1 prediction from this thesis
BullishNebius Stock (NBIS) Price Target JUST JumpedAug 27, 2026
Open source video →Kevin reviews a bullish Goldman Sachs note on Nebius driven by strong per-megawatt compute deal pricing, a new Groq/Nvidia chip partnership, and a Bloom Energy power deal, while noting his own valuation model is more conservative than Goldman's. He flags risks around reliance on upfront customer deposits inflating cash flow, the sustainability of current elevated GPU rental pricing, and Nebius's smaller scale relative to peers like SpaceX and Google.
Key arguments
- Deals closing at $20 million per megawatt with sub-two-year payback periods, better than Kevin's own expectation of $14-15B/GW
- New partnership providing first Groq production chips for ultra-fast token inference, competing with Cerebras
- Secured hundreds of megawatts of behind-the-meter power generation and a Bloom Energy fuel cell deal to speed deployment
- Balance sheet is decent with $8 billion cash versus manageable long-term debt
- Goldman expects profitability by 2028 with significant growth through the end of the decade
Risks acknowledged
- 70% of Q2 deals included upfront payments, meaning reported cash flow may be inflated by deposits that won't recur
- Deliberately holding back 2027 capacity to artificially support pricing distorts true market-clearing spot prices
- Current elevated GPU rental pricing may be a temporary bump from agentic coding demand that could revert, causing roughly a 20% price decline
- Nebius is much smaller than SpaceX or Google, limiting its scale relative to peers
- High cancellation costs and payback sustainability remain uncertain as pricing scales
1 prediction from this thesis
BearishStarting Over, the Lying Job Market, AI Collapse, & Investing.Aug 11, 2026
Open source video →Kevin views Nebius as part of a group of AI infrastructure/data center plays that he believes will end up as long-term bag holders once compute commoditizes and rental yields compress.
Key arguments
- Compute is a commodity and pricing power will fade once the current GPU shortage ends
- These companies took on debt to build capacity that may not retain premium yields long-term
1 prediction from this thesis
