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Palantir (PLTR)

How the view evolved

Tom Nash on PLTR

Every thesis Tom Nash has voiced on PLTR — 23 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
PLTRPalantir Technologies
Strongly BullishPalantir Could Hit $1,000 (But ONLY If This Happens TODAY)Nov 2, 2026
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Nash believes Palantir's rapid growth, expanding profitability and strong balance sheet support substantial long-term share-price appreciation. He separates that conviction from the immediate earnings reaction, which he believes depends on exceptionally strong results.

Key arguments

  • Revenue growth, operating leverage, cash generation and customer retention indicate strong business momentum.
  • The host says the share price and forward earnings multiple have declined while fundamentals improved.
  • A near-term rally requires a triple beat of guidance, consensus and revenue-growth acceleration, including approximately $2.28 billion in quarterly revenue.
  • His long-term scenarios use declining but elevated revenue growth, net margins of 38–46% and earnings multiples of 35–55.
  • He recommends focusing on fundamentals and maintaining regular dollar-cost averaging.

Risks acknowledged

  • The stock is priced for perfection, creating immediate downside risk.
  • Maintaining percentage growth becomes harder as the business grows.
  • Large customer contracts create concentration risk.
  • International revenue exposure remains limited.
  • Stock-based compensation remains elevated at 13.7% of revenue.
  • Investors may consider the company overvalued or overbought.

10 predictions from this thesis

BullNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“Number two, I want you to stay the course, whatever DCA, double down, continue to DCA as normal.”

BullNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“What I want you to do when we start looking at these earnings today, what I want you to do, number one, don't buy or sell the stock into earnings. Do not do it. Never, never, never. Leave it alone.”

Bullpending$1,000Nov 2, 2026

“My new bullcase assumes the same revenue growth pattern with 46% net margin 55 PE in 2030. That's going to give us $978. So basically my new price target for Palunteer is $1,000 and $431% upside from this point, which I think we're going to be a lot closer to after these earnings.”

Bullpending$717Nov 2, 2026

“At 45P PE, this is a $717 stock and upside of 290%. 219% in just a few years on the company that's already by a lot of experts are overbought. I see this as a huge upside.”

Bullpending$495Nov 2, 2026

“I assumed 38% net margin, 35 PE, 35 PE, and that gives me a price per share of $495, which is an upside of 170% from this point. 170% on Palunteer over the next few years is my bare case, the absolute minimum.”

BullNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“Let this be my only issues with Palunteer forever. I'm buying it right now.”

BullNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“If they improve and they continue to improve over the long haul, it's a weighing machine. The stock market is going to price them accordingly. So have no worry about it. Relax. Everything will be okay.”

BearNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“If you don't deliver on one, two, and three, the stock price in the short term is going to take a hit.”

BullNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“Triple beat in my lexicon basically means guidance, consensus, acceleration. If you beat those three, the stock price is going to go up.”

BearNot scored—Nov 2, 2026

“In fact, there's a real good chance more likely than not that Palanteer beats and still we actually see -5 - 10 - 15%.”

Strongly BullishI’m seeing the Palantir setup againOct 29, 2026
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The host argues that Palantir itself again offers an attractive investment setup after earnings growth and a stagnant share price compressed its valuation. He views its software positioning and growth as support for a favorable long-term investment outlook.

Key arguments

  • Revenue, operating income and cash have increased while the stock has underperformed.
  • The host says forward earnings and PEG multiples have fallen substantially.
  • He describes the company as a software monopoly.
  • He argues that earnings growth can resolve apparently expensive valuation multiples.

Risks acknowledged

  • A forward earnings multiple of 57 can still look expensive.
  • The stock has declined slightly over the preceding year.
Strongly BullishThis Market Dip is a GIFT (7 Stocks to Buy NOW)Oct 19, 2026
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Nash identifies Palantir as his top investment pick because strong business growth has coincided with a nearly flat stock price over the preceding year. He argues that growth-adjusted valuation makes the shares cheap.

Key arguments

  • He views Palantir as essential to AI deployment at scale.
  • He cites rapid revenue, operating income, and net income growth.
  • He highlights a declining forward P/E and a forward PEG of 1.2.

Risks acknowledged

  • The stock has experienced extreme historical volatility.
  • The forward P/E remains 69, which he defends by accounting for growth.
BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to the Stock Market (& Why AI Stocks are Next)Oct 16, 2026
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Palantir serves as a historical illustration of large eventual gains interrupted by severe declines. Nash argues that selecting a winner alone is insufficient if an investor cannot hold through volatility.

Key arguments

  • He describes a fall from approximately $40 to $6 before a subsequent large rally.
  • He cites substantial gains on his historical stock selection.

Risks acknowledged

  • He reports a drawdown of approximately 75%.
  • Investors could still realize losses by selling during the decline.
Strongly BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks (but most will invest wrong)Oct 11, 2026
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Nash presents Palantir as his leading example of patient, fundamentals-based investing through severe volatility. He attributes his continued ownership and historical purchases during declines to business conviction and a predefined investment system.

Key arguments

  • He reports a 40% portfolio allocation to Palantir.
  • He says fundamentals motivated purchases at several historical price levels.
  • Holding through drawdowns enabled substantial historical compounding.
  • Business improvement matters more than short-term price movements.

Risks acknowledged

  • The stock experienced substantial drawdowns.
  • Maintaining conviction through volatility is difficult.
  • His portfolio should not be copied.
  • Compounding requires choosing the right business.
Strongly BullishIf you are a PALANTIR shareholder….GET READYAug 4, 2026
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Tom Nash argues Palantir's latest earnings (93% revenue growth, expanding commercial and government deals, rule of 40 at 155) show the company's true potential is even bigger than his long-standing $1 trillion market cap thesis. He believes the stock, despite a 'expensive' valuation on trading and forward PE, remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory and that hitting $1 trillion is actually a conservative outcome if growth doesn't decelerate.

Key arguments

  • Revenue grew 93% to $1.94B with adjusted EPS of $0.41 beating estimates by 17%.
  • US commercial revenue up 150% and US government revenue up 90%, both accelerating.
  • Rule of 40 score of 155 and operating margin of 62% are exceptional.
  • Reverse-engineering the $1T market cap shows it requires revenue growth deceleration, not acceleration, making the thesis conservative.
  • High switching costs create a 'Hotel California' dynamic where customers rarely leave once onboarded.

Risks acknowledged

  • Trading PE of 138 and forward PE of 77 with a PEG of 1.5 make the stock expensive.
  • Key-man risk around CEO Alex Karp is significant.
  • Commercial or government growth could slow down, undermining the bull case.
  • The stock is highly volatile and will not move up in a straight line.
Strongly BullishHistory is About to Be Made... It's Worse Than You ThinkJul 31, 2026
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Tom Nash believes Palantir is priced for perfection but may deserve it given its exceptional financial profile, including 145 Rule of 40, 150% net retention, zero debt, and $8 billion cash. He sees its government contracts and institutional integration as a nearly unbreakable moat.

Key arguments

  • Rule of 40 of 145, 85% revenue growth, 60% operating margin, and 150% net retention are described as a 'one of one' financial profile.
  • Government contracts, security clearances, and years of institutional integration make Palantir nearly impossible to replicate.
  • Zero debt and $8 billion in cash provide financial stability.

Risks acknowledged

  • Trades at a 14x sales-type valuation ('14p') that is priced for perfection with no room for execution missteps.
Strongly BullishThe Best AI Stocks To Buy In 2026 Jul 20, 2026
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Nash identifies Palantir as his highest-conviction stock and places it in the AI orchestration layer that connects technology to business value. He rejects the idea that chatbots will undermine its business and emphasizes its growth metrics.

Key arguments

  • Agent deployment requires governance, monitoring, and orchestration.
  • He cites revenue growth, operating income growth, and a high rule-of-40 metric.
  • Historical performance is used to argue against relying solely on sales multiples.

Risks acknowledged

  • Palantir trades at a high sales multiple.
  • Critics argue chatbots could displace its business; Nash rejects that argument.
Strongly Bullish🚨The 5 Stocks Print Millionaires (but most will be investing wrong)Jul 10, 2026
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Palantir is Nash's most enthusiastic pick, which he describes as the operating system for AI software infrastructure. He considers its current valuation deeply discounted relative to its growth and competitive position.

Key arguments

  • He cites rapid revenue, operating-income and free-cash-flow growth.
  • He describes Palantir as having no equivalent alternative or competition.
  • He argues that its decline from previous highs creates a discount.

Risks acknowledged

  • He acknowledges repeated criticism of his Palantir recommendation.
  • The stock has declined substantially from previous highs.
Strongly BullishPalantir Just Did The UnthinkableJun 26, 2026
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Nash considers Palantir a substantial bargain after its reported 53% drawdown because he believes revenue, profitability, cash generation, and customer adoption continue to improve. He expects strong fundamentals eventually to support the share price and expresses conviction through increased buying below $165.

Key arguments

  • Language models provide intelligence, while Palantir supplies the operational integration, governance, security, and execution needed to use that intelligence.
  • He cites 60% annual revenue growth, 355% operating-income growth, and 94% free-cash-flow growth as evidence against the competitive-displacement narrative.
  • He cites $7 billion to $8 billion in cash and very little debt as balance-sheet strengths.
  • He describes a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 55 following the decline as attractive relative to business growth.
  • He argues that contracts and deeper integration across government and commercial customers strengthen the business.
  • His buying strategy increases purchases during substantial drawdowns when fundamentals remain sound.

Risks acknowledged

  • The stock has declined 53% from its reported November 2025 high.
  • Investors fear that Anthropic could displace Palantir.
  • A lower stock price could signal a genuine problem if business fundamentals worsen.
  • Improving fundamentals may take an extended period to translate into share-price gains.
Strongly Bullish🚨MAJOR BUY: Last EASY Wealth Opportunity For DecadesMay 29, 2026
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The host calls Palantir's decline a bargain because revenue, cash flow, operating income, and margins are improving sharply. He includes it among seven companies he expects to perform exceptionally well as AI adoption expands.

Key arguments

  • Claims shares are down 10% year to date while revenue grows 70% and free cash flow grows 84%.
  • Cites a rule-of-40 score of 154 and operating-income growth of 350%.
  • Claims margins and institutional ownership have risen substantially.

Risks acknowledged

  • Acknowledges that Palantir trades at a premium and is widely described as expensive.
Strongly Bullish🚨These AI Stocks Will Print Millionaires (You are investing in AI wrong)May 15, 2026
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The host considers Palantir a dominant platform for implementing enterprise AI and argues that rapid business growth has outpaced its stock performance. He assigns it a $500 valuation and ranks it alongside Tesla as his highest-upside holding.

Key arguments

  • Describes Palantir as the only operating system for business-to-business AI implementation at scale.
  • Cites 70% revenue growth, 32% operating margin, and sharply rising free cash flow.
  • Cites almost $8 billion in cash and no debt.
  • Argues that a stock gain of only 3% over twelve months creates a valuation gap.
  • Palantir and Tesla together constitute 60% of his portfolio.

Risks acknowledged

  • Investors worry that the prior tenfold appreciation means the opportunity has passed.
  • Investors question its price-to-earnings ratio.
  • Acknowledges substantial risk and company-specific issues.
BullishThe Boring Investing Strategy That Will Win in 2026May 14, 2026
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Nash presents Palantir, comprising 40% of his stated portfolio, as a historical example of holding through large price swings. He links his investment approach to improving fundamentals and market misunderstanding, emphasizing patience over market timing.

Key arguments

  • Palantir is one of his three portfolio holdings and has a stated 40% allocation.
  • He describes substantial historical gains despite sharp rallies and drawdowns.
  • He identifies Palantir as a business he found through the combination of improving fundamentals and weak or stagnant pricing.
  • He uses Palantir's historical recovery to illustrate prices eventually catching up with business performance.

Risks acknowledged

  • He describes Palantir falling from approximately $40 to $6 and later retreating from approximately $200 to $130.
  • His approach requires monitoring business quality and maintaining independently researched conviction.
Strongly BullishHistory is About to Be Made... [Last Big Wealth Opportunity For A Decade]Apr 24, 2026
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Nash sees Palantir as a mission-critical decision platform that benefits from chaotic operating conditions. He argues that long-term share performance follows revenue and margin growth, while acknowledging unpredictable near-term prices.

Key arguments

  • The software helps organizations make decisions amid supply-chain and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • He describes Palantir as mission-critical and difficult to undercut.
  • Revenue and margin development matter more to his thesis than short-term news.

Risks acknowledged

  • He recounts concerns about valuation, insider selling, government exposure, and competition, which he dismisses.
  • He explicitly says he does not know whether the shares return to $200 or $100.
  • Continued operating improvement is necessary for his long-term valuation argument.
BullishLast Big Wealth Opportunity For A Decade (Get READY!)Apr 16, 2026
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Palantir was identified years ago ahead of the curve and serves as a prime example of successful long-term investing. The stock was recommended at $6 and represents the type of opportunity that creates generational wealth when bought during periods of extreme fear.

Key arguments

  • Early identification ahead of mainstream adoption
  • Example of buying during extreme fear at $6
  • Demonstrates importance of conviction during volatility

Risks acknowledged

  • Stock experienced 70% drawdown in 2022 requiring conviction to hold
Strongly BullishIf you are a PALANTIR shareholder….GET READYApr 10, 2026
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Tom Nash argues that Palantir's recent 26% decline over 6 months is a buying opportunity driven by market sentiment and Michael Burry's bearish thesis, not fundamental deterioration. He presents extensive financial data showing 56% revenue growth, 191% operating margin growth, $2B free cash flow, and a 98/100 scorecard rating on his platform.

Key arguments

  • Revenue growing at 56% annually with operating margins expanding 191%
  • Company generates $2B in free cash flow with $7.2B cash vs $400M debt (17x coverage)
  • Institutional investors have been accumulating shares for 2.5 years despite public bearish sentiment
  • Anthropic competition thesis flawed - different use cases and scalability
  • Stock MVP scorecard rates PLTR 98/100, higher than Nvidia's 88/100

Risks acknowledged

  • Michael Burry's bearish thesis about Anthropic disruption
  • Recent market volatility and AI sector selloff
  • Stock down 26% over 6 months creating investor nervousness
Strongly BullishHistory is About to Be Made... (Emergency Update)Apr 6, 2026
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Palantir represents 30% of Tom's portfolio and has delivered 1,500% returns since its 2020 DPO at $10. Despite current 11.5% decline, he views this as a buying opportunity since the drop is market-related, not company-specific.

Key arguments

  • Up 1,500% since 2020 DPO launch at $10 per share
  • Current drop is market-related, not company-specific
  • Represents quality business experiencing temporary market sentiment
  • Historical pattern shows major drawdowns followed by significant gains

Risks acknowledged

  • Currently down 11.5% in market selloff
  • Has experienced multiple major drawdowns including 85% and 39% drops
  • High beta stock with amplified volatility
BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks | Get READY!Mar 13, 2026
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Nash sees Palantir as an ideal beneficiary of geopolitical crises due to its combined tech-growth and government/defense exposure, and plans to use the current war-driven dip to keep buying it. He cites his track record buying from $6/share and the stock's prior spike during this war as validation.

Key arguments

  • Palantir has dual exposure to tech growth and government/defense contracts that spike during wars
  • He has bought Palantir since $6/share and returned over 1,000% since 2022
  • His prior call that Palantir would spike during this war already played out
  • Plans to use the current dip to keep buying quality stocks like Palantir
Strongly BullishThe UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to StocksMar 5, 2026
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The host reiterates a pre-war call that Palantir would spike and stay elevated through and after the Iran conflict due to government contracts and commercial tech exposure, and separately projects it reaching a trillion-dollar valuation within a decade as AI adoption continues.

Key arguments

  • Government contract exposure
  • Commercial technology exposure
  • Relevant 'whatever happens' in war, peace, chaos, or growth markets
BullishIf you are a Palantir shareholder….GET READY!Jan 30, 2026
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The host attributes Palantir's recent ~9-16% decline to pre-earnings jitters and profit-taking after a massive multi-year run-up, not to any deterioration in the business, noting new contract wins during the same period. He frames the dip as a buying opportunity for investors who still view Palantir as a long-term compounder.

Key arguments

  • No negative business catalysts such as canceled contracts, management departures, or scandals explain the drop
  • New major deals were announced during the same week the stock declined
  • Stock MVP fundamental scores remain strong: profitability 85/100, growth 91/100, solvency 75/100, overall 81/100, net income up 43% and 16.3% net margin
  • A similar 50% drop in February 2025 was used by the host and his academy to accumulate shares, and that batch is now up 100%
  • Short-term price swings are attributed mainly to traders and lower-conviction retail investors, not long-term holders

Risks acknowledged

  • Palantir's P/E ratio is very high and frequently criticized as overvalued
  • Palantir is one of the most volatile large-cap stocks, and volatility will likely increase heading into earnings
Strongly BullishIf you are a TESLA shareholder….GET READYJan 23, 2026
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Palantir was a successful undervalued investment that generated thousands of percent returns from $6 in January 2023. Used as an example of finding great businesses that are mispriced by the market.

Key arguments

  • Bought at $6 in January 2023 when heavily undervalued
  • Generated thousands of percent returns demonstrating the power of finding mispriced great companies
BullishTom Lee Just Said The UNTHINKABLEJan 8, 2026
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Palantir is one of Tom Nash's top three holdings, and he plans to continue dollar-cost averaging into it throughout 2026 regardless of market direction, doubling his buying pace if it drops below a certain threshold.

Key arguments

  • Palantir named as one of the host's top three holdings he will continue to 'ride and die' with
  • Host's modified DCA plan applies to his core holdings, doubling buy pace on significant drops

Risks acknowledged

  • Host notes 2026 may be a 'harder mode' market requiring more fundamentals-based conviction rather than easy gains
BullishRevealing My 15 Buy & Hold Forever Stocks!Dec 18, 2025
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The host calls Palantir the 'operating system of AI,' arguing it turns AI model outputs into real-time, compliant, scalable business decisions, and names it his #1 pick among his 15 buy-and-hold AI stocks.

Key arguments

  • Described as the 'operating system of AI' that converts model outputs into real-time, compliant decisions
  • Positioned as the essential software layer without which AI outputs are meaningless at the organizational level