Every thesis Jo Bhakdi has voiced on SPCX — 15 in all, newest first, with the arguments and risks behind each. Reads as the evolution of their view: the bottom is where they started, the top is where they landed.
The host regards SpaceX as his strongest buy and considers its selloff unjustified. He argues that existing data-center development, secured capacity and future satellite infrastructure position it for substantial profit growth despite political restrictions.
Key arguments
He believes the market overlooks roughly 10 gigawatts of capacity that SpaceX has substantially secured.
Existing development and permits could protect SpaceX as restrictions impede new competing supply.
He expects SpaceX to become a leading AI compute supplier and benefit from satellite infrastructure.
He considers its valuation dramatically below its potential.
Risks acknowledged
SpaceX was hit hard by the election-related selloff.
Texas and federal authorities could interfere with its operations.
Its mix of neocloud and hyperscaler characteristics complicates market perceptions.
The host's revenue run-rate estimate is explicitly his opinion.
The host presents SpaceX as potentially the market's most undervalued stock, citing its capacity expansion and low valuation relative to projected earnings. His operational scenario anticipates substantial capacity additions in 2027 and more than $450 billion in revenue, although these figures are business forecasts rather than share-price targets.
Key arguments
The host says SpaceX has demonstrated an ability to scale capacity from nothing to three gigawatts within a year.
He anticipates approximately 10 gigawatts of additional capacity in 2027, citing preparations for 20 gigawatts.
Conditional on that expansion, he projects more than $450 billion in revenue and approximately $250 billion in earnings.
He argues that a market capitalization below $2 trillion implies a forward price-to-earnings ratio below 10 against his earnings expectations.
He contrasts SpaceX's execution with asserted failures of competing cloud projects and Project Stargate.
Risks acknowledged
The projected financial performance depends on capacity expansion that the host describes tentatively.
The host considers SpaceX exceptionally undervalued because its vertically integrated infrastructure capabilities could let it expand AI compute while rivals encounter power and construction bottlenecks. He endorses buying and maintaining long-term exposure, while recognizing election and Starship execution risks.
Key arguments
Faster construction could allow capital to be recycled into substantially more compute capacity.
He argues that SpaceX has secured equipment and developed energy infrastructure capabilities that competitors lack.
He forecasts potentially more than $450 billion in revenue and over $200 billion in earnings next year, contingent on substantial capacity expansion.
He describes the shares as trading below ten times his projected next-year earnings.
He expects compute scarcity to sustain rapid data-center payback periods.
Risks acknowledged
The shares have declined substantially since his purchases.
A Democratic sweep could produce an adverse short-term stock reaction.
A failed Starship flight could cause a major stock decline.
He acknowledges uncertainty about capacity expansion and future valuation multiples.
The host sees SpaceX as deeply undervalued because of its AI infrastructure expansion and projected earnings power. He remains invested with slight leverage but acknowledges merger-related pressure, election risk and uncertainty about the immediate rally.
Key arguments
GPU buildout and cash-generation expectations support the valuation thesis.
He estimates a forward earnings multiple near seven for the end of 2027.
A much higher valuation multiple could create substantial share-price upside.
He explicitly agrees that SpaceX looks like a buy today.
Risks acknowledged
A merger premium for Tesla could be a headwind for SpaceX.
His prior very short-term bullish forecast may have been wrong.
Democratic control of Congress could hurt the stock.
Host argues SpaceX's capital efficiency and six-month data-center payback period are massively underestimated by the market, citing huge capex buildouts (macro hard, mini hard, spam, gun range) reaching roughly 3GW by year end. He believes this translates into a $150B revenue run-rate and views SpaceX as deeply undervalued at a forward P/E near 7-8x, expecting the stock to rise several multiples over the next one to two years.
Key arguments
Capex efficiency allows SpaceX to build 2-3x more compute per dollar than peers due to a 6-month vs 18-month payback period
Leaked capex figures show $470B planned over 5 quarters, with Elon calling the capex estimate overestimated
New compute buildouts (macro harder, mini hard, spam, gun range) will reach ~3GW of Blackwell compute by end of 2026
Anthropic committed $125B to SpaceX through 2030 in its S-1
Projected run rate could reach $150B by end of year versus market expectation of $100B
At $1.86T market cap, forward earnings multiple is extremely low (~7-8x) relative to growth
Risks acknowledged
Stock got slaughtered on Friday amid broader market selloff
Debt levels (~$150B) could become a problem if capex efficiency doesn't hold
Market may continue to assign a low, memory-stock-like multiple instead of a growth multiple
He was 'clearly wrong' in the short term as the stock price fell despite his bullish calls
The speaker attributes SpaceX's weakness to temporary selling pressure from unlocked shares, with sellers concentrated around $145–$150. He expects a sharp rally once that selling subsides, cites projected revenue as fundamental support, and forecasts both a recovery to $170–$180 and a potential threefold or fourfold share-price increase.
Key arguments
A large share unlock has created temporary selling pressure.
Nearly 700 million shares of subsequent trading volume suggest the market is absorbing the supply.
The speaker expects selling pressure to subside early next week.
He projects $400–$450 billion in revenue next year as support for his investment thesis.
Risks acknowledged
The speaker concedes that his opportunity assessment could be wrong.
Continuing selling around $145–$150 is currently limiting the share price.
The host considers SpaceX ridiculously undervalued after strong earnings and a subsequent selloff. He expects medium-term appreciation while acknowledging a recent unlock and the assumptions needed to value future disruption.
Key arguments
Describes recent earnings as exceptionally strong.
Views the decline following the earnings rally as excessive.
Expects disruption to support future value.
Risks acknowledged
A substantial unlock contributed to selling pressure.
The investment thesis requires assumptions about future developments.
The host calls SpaceX his strongest tactical opportunity, arguing that exceptional earnings are being obscured by temporary unlock-related selling. He also expects large multiyear returns from terrestrial compute expansion and eventual orbital AI.
Key arguments
He attributes the recent decline to unlocks exceeding half the previously available float.
He expects trading turnover to absorb the selling pressure early next week.
His next-year scenario assumes roughly $400–450 billion of revenue and substantial earnings.
He regards the business outlook as more immediately visible than Tesla's.
He recommends buying now and maintaining exposure alongside Tesla.
Risks acknowledged
Unlock-related selling may persist and another unlock is approaching.
The market could assign an unexpectedly low earnings multiple.
A failed Starship test flight could cause severe downside.
Orbital AI success is a condition for the largest multiyear return scenario.
He explicitly acknowledges the possibility of being wrong.
The host believes SpaceX shares are temporarily suppressed by mechanical selling after large unlocks and expects a sharp rebound once that supply clears. He anticipates near-term outperformance versus Tesla and a longer-term tripling supported by terrestrial compute earnings and orbital AI potential.
Key arguments
Large unlocks explain recent price weakness despite what the host considers exceptionally strong earnings news.
He believes compute capacity expansion can generate substantial revenue and profits.
He sees 150 as a selling-order hurdle whose clearance should release pent-up buying demand.
Starship and orbital compute provide a longer-term valuation narrative beyond near-term terrestrial earnings.
He holds substantial leveraged bullish exposure.
Risks acknowledged
Unlock-related selling has already caused losses and can continue suppressing the shares.
Trading below 150 remains possible on a bad market day.
A market hiccup could delay the rally.
Compute earnings could receive low valuation multiples.
He warns that copying his leveraged exposure is dangerous.
He rejects the highest revenue projections attributed to Elon.
The host expects SpaceX to rally substantially as analysts recognize the investment implications of its compute expansion. He recommends buying and adding, forecasts $300 soon, and endorses substantial five-year returns.
Key arguments
The host accepts management's compute expansion plans after previously discounting them.
Compute monetization and a claimed energy procurement advantage underpin higher projections.
Later space-based compute expansion is expected to extend growth.
The host believes the earnings reaction materially understates fair value.
Further research leads him to expect limited downside from the share unlock.
Risks acknowledged
Wall Street may continue to discount management's projections.
The growth thesis depends on executing a very large compute buildout.
The host previously considered the unlock a greater risk.
He anticipates some operational growth deceleration from 2028 to 2030.
The speaker considers SpaceX exceptionally undervalued if its earnings projections materialize and explicitly endorses a strongly bullish investment stance. His argument uses a hypothetical $2 trillion valuation and projected $200 billion in earnings at the end of 2027 to imply a forward earnings multiple of approximately 10.
Key arguments
Projected earnings rise from negative levels to a $50 billion run rate within three quarters and $200 billion by the end of 2027.
A $2 trillion valuation against $200 billion in projected earnings implies approximately 10 times forward earnings.
The speaker compares that multiple with Micron and memory businesses but describes SpaceX as noncyclical.
Risks acknowledged
The speaker acknowledges that the projected earnings acceleration initially sounds implausible.
The undervaluation argument is contingent on the projections materializing.
The host expects AI compute infrastructure and eventual orbital computing to support exceptional long-term SpaceX investment returns. He combines that conviction with bullish short puts between unlocks and brief bearish trades around mechanical share selling.
Key arguments
He believes upcoming unlocks produce predictable selling pressure when shares are sufficiently above the IPO price.
The stock is holding up despite continuing selling, suggesting strong underlying demand.
Terrestrial compute expansion and anticipated contracts underpin his near-term and 12–18-month bullish views.
Reusable Starship and orbital computing underpin his multiyear thesis.
He endorses the possibility of quadrillion-dollar market capitalization over a much longer horizon.
Risks acknowledged
Macro weakness could overwhelm company-specific catalysts.
Unlock selling can suppress an otherwise bullish stock.
Shorting is hazardous because unexpected positive announcements can cause sharp gains.
The next unlock is smaller and earnings are approaching.
Telecommunications competition will be harder than some investors expect.
He considers multiple orders of magnitude above the current world economy an exaggeration.
SpaceX is mentioned alongside Tesla in an introductory observation about stocks already rising. No future price, expected investment return or buy, hold or sell recommendation is stated.
Key arguments
SpaceX serves as an introductory example of the technological transformation surrounding the political discussion.
The reference to shares rising describes existing performance rather than a distinct forward-looking call.
The host sees SpaceX positioning itself to own the bottom compute layer and top orchestration layer of the AI stack. Using the best available third-party models would support a universal harness without requiring ownership of the middle model layer.
Key arguments
The host says SpaceX will select the best back-end model for each task, including external models and APIs.
He describes Rockbot as developing into a universal AI harness.
He expects SpaceX to pursue a dominant position in space-based compute infrastructure.
He describes a first gigawatt project beginning in 2030 as part of that infrastructure ambition.
MixedWhy SpaceX Stock Will DROP MORE This WeekOct 7, 2026
The host expects unlock-related selling to depress SpaceX shares over the coming days and again around the larger late-October or November unlock. He remains strongly bullish over the longer term, endorses a $300 valuation outlook, and plans to transition from tactical shorts to buying.
Key arguments
He estimates that 10–20% of newly unlocked shares will be sold as employees and other holders diversify.
Higher share prices should encourage more aggressive selling.
Previous unlocks produced initial declines followed by ceilings created by limit sell orders.
He expects the largest unlock to create more persistent selling pressure.
He believes SpaceX can control both compute infrastructure and the user-facing layer of the AI stack.
Risks acknowledged
Unexpected positive announcements could absorb selling and push shares higher.
The strategically bullish outlook makes short positions risky.
Lower prices could reduce sellers' willingness to sell.
The market may anticipate some unlock selling before the actual unlock.
The host cannot quantify the large unlock's effect confidently before seeing the prevailing market conditions.
