Randy Kirk on TSLA

“You got sharp drops in both stocks and the overall market with no foundation. Um, this is a kind of thing that usually turns into a V-shaped recovery, although it may go down more before it goes up.”

“When the factories are screaming and the stock is collapsing, overall, I'm going to pay attention to the factories because eventually it will all work out and it will be a weighing machine instead of a voting machine.”

“We'll see if the uh SpaceX and Tesla can get back on on pace again. Uh eventually, of course, it will. They both will. whether it's next week or next month.”

“Oh yeah, but yeah, but I think Tesla's going to go up as well.”

“That's that's you that one. That's good. Listen, listen to this man because he's he's he's uh speaking my book. You know, I have the great drip up theory. Right.”

“maybe that explains why I think the stock should be valued a lot higher than it is [laughter] right now.”

“and I think that's why the stock was up as much as it was at one point. Um, and I think it was the macro that dragged it dragged it back down. So, we probably can retrace those steps pretty easily.”

“So, whenever they come out with the merger offer price, let's say it's uh you know, three out of five, you know, three shares for five shares or let's say it's a 30% premium, whatever the number is, well then the two stocks are going to start moving toward those numbers. Okay. And that would be Tesla moving up.”

“the announcement comes out saying, "Hey, we didn't hold a vote because SpaceX wants to potentially uh buy out or merch with Tesla for $500, $420, $550, Alexandria 690, whatever it is. My opinion is that the stock's going to move up close to that pretty quickly,”

“If you take $2 trillion in profit and you divided that by three billion shares, you're going to end up with a lot of you're going to end up with $667 a share. If you do a 30p on that, then your shares are worth $20,000 each. So if the companies are still separate, that means that your Tesla share is worth $20,000.”

“I I personally think it shouldn't be a continuation of the trend to be selling off the NASDAQ and selling off uh you know the S&P but selling off Tesla selling off SpaceX but we'll see”

“Okay, so Optimus, I think, when it actually happens, when we have a visual a visual thing where you can clearly see that it is incredibly capable, then it will will have a a meaningful impact on Tesla stock. But until we see that, I think it stays in that 1 to 10% range.”

“It's it's worth much closer to $800.”

“He thinks it's a stretch. He thinks it's probably going to be longer, but it could happen. that would definitely give the stock a little bit of a jump.”

“I think Tesla I'm a little less sure about. I think Tesla probably might be down on Thursday.”

“and I think long-term not that I'm giving stock advice, but it looks to me like long-term these these investments are going to have big paybacks.”

“I would argue of course as a bull that unsupervised, even supervised self-driving has put new life under the Tesla opportunity and that unsupervised will drive it to the roof.”

“My answer simply, SpaceX and Tesla. Simple, simple, simple. Never in 60 years of playing the market have I seen a better risk adjusted opportunity.”

“You know how I've talked for for for a very very long time about how Tesla is a kind of a binary bet. You either believe that FSD is going to eventually be unsupervised, and there'll be tens of thousands, and even millions millions and millions of robotaxis out there, or you don't. You either believe that Optimus is going to be a real thing that's going to make amazing application have amazing applications for businesses or you don't. You either believe you know, those are the two things, right? If you do then you're heavily invested. If you don't, you know, you should have your money someplace else. I think it's just that simple.”

“I think there was exigent circumstances uh on on Monday that caused it not to happen, but I think it will continue to drip up. >> Mhm. >> It as long as they keep adding. Add, add, add, add. That's what I think.”

“I think the buying opportunity now, but you know, if you want to wait till it never gets down to 210 or 250 with significant gains possible if Tesla advances in those technologies.”

“Uh numbers probably are going to be a real standout.”

“I think we could be up 10 bucks. So don't be shocked if we're in the 290s. I'm sorry the 390s uh before the end of the day tomorrow.”

“I think that Tesla will be up on Monday uh because of the of the X takeover and the large number of of units that were put into the field. Is that dripping up? tripping up and I think that will be enough to move it two 3 4%.”

“I believe that Tesla will ship at least 1 million Optim, probably a lot more.”

“I think that Tesla could 3x. So, something also in the range of 800 900 again depending on robo taxi and Optimus.”

“That might not be till January, February. We go through 500 and we will start heading towards 600 again depending on the numbers and mostly depending on when does the optimist reveal come.”

“I think we will end the uh year with 3,000 roughly cars. It might be more.”

“it will drip up as long as these expectations are starting to be met. And I think that that's going to continue to be true.”

“I'm feeling very good about both companies. I feel like we're looking at uh a remarkable uh 2027. Um I don't I I would be so shocked if we don't have a remarkable 2027.”

“So now when you start getting breaking into this hardware realm of taking AI and putting in the physical world, the lead grows for SpaceX AI {slash} Tesla uh to the point where I don't know how others catch up in in even 5 to 10 years.”

“Um so for now I'm going to give an optimistic 501,000. This is obviously the number, this is a number I'm probably going to change between now and then”

“And then Caner raised I'm sorry rates Tesla overweight right now with a $485 target. Um that would be typically that would be for the end of next year as opposed to the end of this year. I think that will be really really low.”

“SpaceX and Tesla for that matter won't be paying any federal taxes for a decade”

“Whereas I look at I look at uh SpaceX and I look at um Tesla with Optimus and it's like I can't see I can't I can't see an end in in the next 20 or 30 years at least.”

“then we have the continuing roll out of row taxi. I think that's the most likely catalyst to make things really happen over the next month or two.”

“I think late 2026 will be we'll start to see the price of both companies move but could be 2027.”

“I think that if there's a document that comes out that's favorable, uh the overhang will go away and it will it'll probably bump the stock a good could be like a good 10%.”

“if there was a set of rules that Tesla could abide by andor if there was a letter that went out and said you're the audit's over, that would probably cause the stock to move up.”

“Just get enough robo taxis on the road and add an impressive reveal and ramp on Optimus, preferably with some actual sales to third parties at very high prices or high rents. And then things could move up super fast.”

“Whereas Tesla has an opportunity to double and maybe triple next year and then 7x the by the following year.”

“Whereas Tesla has an opportunity to double and maybe triple next year”

“all of that is going to be beamed down to us and we're going to have the same Grock on our computer, the same Grock on our phone, the same Grock in our car, and the same Grock on our bot.”

“Um, that they should be charging $100,000 a year in rent. Um, and if they do that, then the profits for Tesla are going to again by 2030 should catch up, maybe even surpass what's happening at SpaceX. >> If they charge a lot less, then no,”

“So now when you start get breaking into this hardware realm of taking AI and putting in the physical world, the lead grows for SpaceX AI/Tesla uh to the point where I don't know how others catch up in in even 5 to 10 years.”

“Nobody else is going to have Grock in the car. Nobody else is going to have Grock in the robot.”

“You know, well yeah, I think it'll be announced this year.”

“2027 is going to be the year when this stock uncorks, assuming it's still independent.”

“If we barely if the robotaxis just kind of drift out a little bit a little bit a little bit, we'll follow the S&P to a certain extent, maybe get 440.”

“I've already been saying 500 if robot taxis continue to ramp decent, let's say maybe 3 to 5,000 by the end of the year, we'll be at 500.”

“And of course on the on the energy side, I'm looking at 16. And by the way, so is everybody else in their cousin. So I think 16 might be the number. I would it could easily be higher.”

“If it's even over 500, if it's over 485, I think it will be a lift.”

“Anyway, um listen, you know, I've got this number uh for for uh Friday. Um I'm you know been saying 530,000. I am not going to back away from that.”

“I think that also I think that the uh institutional I'm sorry that the uh retail investors may start piling back in uh when they start to see the stock moving back up towards 500 and that could of course jettison up even higher.”

“Tesla would get bumped up to about 500 bucks.”

“I think 101 is going to be potentially a bigger deal than we think, and I would say that could be a big catalyst for Tesla.”

“We are set up structurally very, very well for Tesla to keep running.”

“I think it's running on fumes at this point. I think the market needs to take a breath.”

“I think that Tesla is going to go up way more than double.”

“I believe in my heart of hearts that conservatively Tesla and SpaceX will double by the end of 2027.”

“there's a bigger product... people are saying that it's oh, I don't know, 10 times bigger than Robotaxi.”

“I think they could do modifications that would with before going to a line where they get to 600,000 per quarter globally.”

“My number for the for this quarter is 530,000.”

“If all these catalysts happen as I believe they're going to happen, it's going to be markedly higher, in the order of, you know, 20% and 100% higher.”

“So but if you take that and you discount that to present value using even 14% you would be I don't know at 1,700 or something which is where I am for the end of next year.”

“I think that they're wrong about Optimus. There hasn't there's been a year delay but in the last nine months everything's been going as promised.”

“I'm not wavering... but I'm at 530. 530,000. That's my number.”

“if we get an Optimus reveal, then we go to 600, maybe more.”

“I think that by the end of this year, it'll be, you know, it'll be a done deal.”

“I don't expect it to go up 10% or anything”

“SpaceX is going to go up. Tesla's going to go up.”

“Yes, Tesla's currently undervalued, but at the same token, SpaceX is currently undervalued.”

“I'm figuring that both companies are going to 10x on their own. they were both 10x over the next, you know, three, four, five years.”

“I think both of them will see a doubling by the end of next year. Um, Tesla more than a doubling by the end of next year.”

“I continue to say that we're going to hit 530,000 in vehicles uh shipments and 16 gawatt hours in deployments from that side of the ledger.”

“They've got enormous structural advantages starting with the car itself, moving to the design, the parts, the service, the size of the network.”

“Whoever said that Cyber Cab won't dominate that, you're wrong. You're a fool.”

“it's going to move the needle is when Vibov stands up and says, We brought in $2 billion in FSD subscriptions and we brought $1.85 of that to the bottom line. That's when people are going to go crazy.”

“So Tesla is going to destroy the business model that Uber has enjoyed all this time.”

“Let's see where we at where we are at this time next year. I think people will be pretty shocked.”

“Things are things are looking really bullish for Tesla.”

“oh, by the way, we're probably sitting on a record quarter in vehicle shipments.”

“So, I think they have the best product as it relates to robo taxi.”

“I think this is going to be a very bullish event.”

“I've been saying it all time highs by the end of the year.”

“Well, I'm not sure why anybody thinks the future of this business is going to anybody other than Tesla.”

“the first clear quarter where we see the hockey stick on robo taxis. That's going to be game over.”

“I think Tesla thinks five or six years from now they won't be selling any cars to consumers.”

“Tesla is phenomenally good at finding ways to save costs, remove parts... that's why Tesla can sell cars at a profit where others have a hard time.”

“You get that there is a future explosion going to happen in the stock price, and you are of two minds, or you're pretty sure, just pretty sure that at some point, because of robotaxis, Optimus, because of data centers in space, there's going to be a huge big explosion.”

“If it's in that range, I think yes, the stock pops.”

“It looks to me like in Japan Tesla is just going to keep on keeping on. It's going to just get bigger and bigger like it has in so many of the uh you know like South Korea uh Taiwan etc.”

“Yeah, robo trucking is going to be an amazing thing.”

“Tesla at 35513 and moving upward. So, we could be getting up to 360 again.”

“In general, my money would be on Tesla eventually.”

“So the TAM is going to be basically unlimited in my opinion. I think it's true as long as it can do useful work.”

“I'm I'm kind of overly optimistic right now.”

“Tesla, we're waiting for the um September 3rd Cyber Cab announcement. Um likely moves up heading into it.”

“I would not be caught with 10-ft pole even thinking about selling any cover calls. No freaking way.”

“I say Tesla all time high by the end of the year. I've been saying that but I don't know what's going to happen when I trade.”

“If you look at the momentum right now for Tesla on the daily, it's going to come down.”

“I think this is a one-day setback um because all eyes are on September three.”

“I think that Tesla is going to be up tomorrow.”

“I still believe 600 bucks by the end of the year.”

“I don't know that they were even at 10 a week a few weeks ago, but now it looks like they might be getting closer to 9 or 10 a day.”

“I can give you my numbers for 2030 which would include Terapab and which would include Optimus and which would include Solar Fab and which would include the maybe by then the merger you know and we could get to a valuation maybe it's 10 trillion and a stock of 3,300 per share.”

“There's no other company that's going to do this in its totality. It is Tesla, SpaceX that delivers this new future device to you.”

“I thought after the unlock, whatever happened with the unlock, we'd be back to 150 testing for the third time. we say 150 Monday or Tuesday probably.”

“I've been talking about the fact that we're going to have the Tesla stock drip back up.”

“it will be, however, followed by a big caving of the stock if the cyber cab roll out turns out to be a nothing burger.”

“we are going to see massive demand for FSD, which we're already seeing.”

“People should be buying this all day long and they should buy Tesla all day long at 335.”

“It's not going to cost very much to get to that 50,000 and then you can grow at 28% a month and be in a million at the end of the year.”

“So what excites me is Megapack, auto sales, FSD revenue. Those are the cash printing machine that keeps the rest of it possible that funds cyber cab development.”

“I can't tell you what the stock is going to do over the short term, but I have a pretty strong conviction about what the company will do over the long term.”

“this is going to be the time where the thing you think is going to happen actually happens. They actually scale.”

“being all in on a company like Tesla makes sense.”

“I have a pretty strong conviction about what the company will do over the long term, not the stock, the company. At some point, the fundamentals catch up.”

“On the strength of Shanghai and Fremont, my investment is likely to outperform the market over 10 years.”

“I think that the correct price for Tesla right now should be more like 400 to 440.”

“It's never going to be perfect. It's just going to get better and better.”

“you could be looking at 80% profits on both companies at a trillion dollars a year each uh by 2030, and that would be make them roughly equal.”

“It'll be data centers will be 90% of the SpaceX business and Optimus will be 90% of the of the Tesla business.”

“I think uh next week everything being equal, no big scares or black swan events, probably going to take another shot at 350.”

“So we've had a pretty good run from 298 to 342 I think it was last time I checked. That's a pretty good run and I think it'll just continue to trickle up as we get more and more.”

“It could run 30 or 40%. You know, maybe at best like 50% if it's a lot of robo taxis, you know, under 10,000 I would say no.”

“So, if we actually have row taxis on the ground, you know, at that level, at some level, whatever that tipping point is, I have to believe we're back to 500.”

“I was thinking that Tesla would probably be around a trillion by 2030.”

“I think I think they both get to a trillion in revenues uh by 2030 and it's probably going to be fairly similar in my opinion for what that's worth.”

“But both companies look like trillion dollar revenue companies in 2030.”

“I think we'll probably hang out at 400 for a few days, but I think ultimately we'll blow through 400 if we can get some robo taxes in the road.”

“And then I look at Tesla and I go, well, I kind of thought they would be doing about a trillion in 2030 also.”

“I think it's stuck. If it goes up, it's only because the market is bringing it up.”

“Well, I think Tesla's just going to keep climbing also.”

“The most important territory in terms of the numbers that we will reach in the third quarter, which I'm already predicting will be over 500,000.”

“Mega 3 is a better product. Um there's a lot of different advantages and they're going I think they're going to be building a long a long duration battery there too.”

“All I can say is that I'm a buyer at these prices.”

“Optimus will be this massive thing that will even make robotaxi look like a small division, a small piece of the business.”

“I think that they have more robo taxes on the road than Whimo by the end of the year.”

“I still think Tesla finishes out at all-time highs by the end of the year.”

“I'm calling it. This is the moment right now. This is the tipping point. We have reached it.”

“there's plenty of reason that when people decide to buy the down the thing that cheap or whatever that they're looking at and take another look and saying okay things aren't as bad as we feared.”

“I think that they have more robo taxis on the road than Whimo by the end of the year. And that's all you need.”

“I still think Tesla finishes out at all-time highs by the end of the year.”

“we could go to a thousand in Tesla if and people forget the if part. They should be thousand by if robo taxi is scaling like crazy. If the car sales are going up because of FSD, right?”

“I'm still at $410 for Monday”

“go to 500 before the end of May”

“I am believing that we go back over 400 before the end of April”

“what's getting us to 450? what's getting us to 500 and I'm saying like that could happen purely on momentum in the market alone. Tesla can move back to 450 with like current course and speed.”